影響台灣內部遷徙的經濟因素探討

The Effect of Economic Factors on Internal Migration in Taiwan

洪嘉瑜(Chia-Yu Hung) ； 陶宏麟(Hung-Lin Tao) ； 蔡智發(Jyh-Fa Tsai)

《經濟論文叢刊》 31卷2期 (2003/06) Pp. 253-277

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2003.312.3

摘要

本文利用延伸的Treyz et al. (1993)模型，分析台灣各縣市居民的遷徙行為。我們發現台灣內部的遷徙行為深受經濟誘因的影響。地區的相對就業機會、相對薪資、與相對產業結構越有利者，越能吸引遷徙者遷入；遷徙者對相對物價的反應則不明顯。遷徙者對這些變數的變化常有過度反應的現象，之後才反方向調整回來。遷徙者也呈現風險趨避的行為。另外，因產業結構改變導致的相對薪資增加引發的遷徙動力較純粹相對薪資上升所引發的遷徙動力更為強烈，隱含政府若要平衡區域間人口的差異，調節地區的產業結構遠比降低區域性所得稅更為有效。最後，這些經濟變數的外生變化所引發的遷徙量將趨於收斂，亦即台灣的遷徙行為呈現長期穩定。

關鍵字

遷徙 ； 區域勞動市場 ； 產業間勞工移動 ； 薪資差異

並列摘要

Applying the model originated by Treyz et al. (1993) to Taiwan's internal migration data, we find that relative employment opportunity, relative nominal wage, and relative industrial structure are significant factors in internal migration decisions. Relative price is, however, not significant. In addition, migrants usually overreact when economic factors change, and then readjust their migration behavior toward the equilibrium. Furthermore, Taiwan migrants are risk averse. We also find that structural change is more important than wage change on internal migration. To balance regional population, it is more efficient for the government to restructure the local industrial sectors than to reduce regional income taxes. Finally, any exogenous change in these economic variables would lead to convergent internal migration. That is, the internal migration in Taiwan is stable.

並列關鍵字

internal migration ； regional labor market ； industrial mobility of labor ； wage differential

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