台灣製造業廠商進出市場與產業生產力之成長分析

Firm Turnover and Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Taiwanese Manufacturing Sector

林培州(Pei-Chou Lin)

《經濟論文叢刊》 31卷2期 (2003/06) Pp. 279-319

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2003.312.4

摘要

本文研究目的，旨在探討台灣製造業廠商生產力與廠商進出市場的關係，並解析廠商進出市場與廠商市場佔有率增減變化，對台灣整體製造業總要素生產力的成長貢獻。本文根據歷年台灣製造業工商普查的串聯廠商資料進行實證分析結果顯示，在過去民國70至85年間台灣製造業退出與新進市場廠商，其生產力均明顯相對低於同期之續存或既存廠商，且退出廠商的生產力亦相對偏低於新進廠商。此外退出廠商與新進廠商，亦分別明顯有自我選擇與主動學習效果，從而透過廠商進出市場的自我選擇與主動學習效果，使得台灣整體製造業的生產力長期持續成長。另外本文亦發現，最近在75-85年間廠商進出市場的週轉貢獻效果大幅下降，乃為造成此期間台灣整體製造業生產力成長幅度明顯趨於減緩的主要原因。進一步分析其原因則不外乎來自以下兩方面因素：(1)新進廠商相對於退出廠商的平均生產力差異幅度明顯縮小；(2)廠商進出市場週轉率急遽下降且廠商進入率與退出率的差距明顯縮減。由於上述兩項不利因素的交互影響，乃造成75-80及的80-85年間台灣整體製造業廠商進出市場的週轉淨貢獻效果鉅幅下降。

關鍵字

廠商週轉率 ； 產業內資源重配置 ； 自我選擇 ； 主動學習效果 ； 總要素生產力

並列摘要

Using comprehensive firm-level panel data from the Taiwanese Census of Manufactures for 1981, 1986, 1991 and 1996, we measure total factor productivity for entering, exiting and continuing cohorts of firms and quantify the contribution of firm turnover to industry productivity growth. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows. First, in line with existing studies on other countries, firm turnover reflects underlying productivity differentials in Taiwanese manufacturing. In general, cohorts of new entering firms have lower average productivity than incumbents, but have higher productivity than exiting firms. Besides, with the ”shadow of death effect” as well as selection and learning effects all present, the productivity differential between entering and exiting firms is an important source of industry-level productivity growth in Taiwanese manufacturing. In percentage terms, the effect of entry and exit accounts for more than 65 per cent of Taiwanese Manufacturing average productivity growth during the 1981-1986 period. However, we also find that the effect of entry and exit has been diminishing in recent periods. It accounts for only 11 percent and 15 percent of manufacturing average productivity growth during the 1986-1991 and 1991-1996 period, respectively. The sharp fall in the manufacturing firm turnover rate and the narrowing of the productivity differential between entering and exiting firms are the two main causes of the diminished effect of entry and exit.

並列關鍵字

Firm Turnover ； Resources Reallocation ； Total Factor Productivity TFP

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