BOT專案收購保證與貸款保證之探討

A Valuation of the Purchase Guarantee and Loan Guarantee for a BOT Project

張大成(Ta -Cheng Chang) ； 周麗娟(Li-Chuan Chou) ； 劉宛怡(Wan-Yi Liu)

《經濟論文叢刊》 32卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 447-481

摘要

基於BOT契約的複雜性，為克服傳統資本預算評估專案價值的缺點，本文結合NPV法則與實質選擇權分析法，探討台灣高速鐵路契約中，收購保證及貸款保證條款，對不同參與者的影響，同時據以評估該BOT專案之價值。結果發現：在不考慮政府保證條款下，該專案之靜態NPV為36億元；而如果考慮政府同時給予特許廠商收購保證與貸款銀行團貸款保證的情況下，則理論上應該向特許廠商收取2,520億元之費用，其中包括：2,124 億元的風險承擔費，226億元的放棄選擇權價值，與170億元的貸款保證價值；並向貸款銀行團收取10.5億元的保證費用。可是政府部門並沒有收取任何的費用，卻分別做了不同的保證承諾。另外我們亦發現同時考慮收購保證及放款保證，對特許廠商持續經營之效果，明顯地優於只考慮收購保證，因為前者的最適放棄經營邊界低於後者，可有效緩和廠商放棄經營的道德危機。

關鍵字

收購保證 ； 貸款保證 ； 實質選擇權 ； 興建營運移轉專案

並列摘要

This paper integrates the net present value (NPV) and real option theories to value the projects, purchase guarantees and loan guarantees for the contract of the Taiwan High Speed Railway (THSR) Build-Operation-Transfer project. The total construction cost is NT$ 325.9 billion and the static NPV is NT$3.2 billion for the THSR. However, we found that the project value of NT$252 billion was augmented for the consortium by the government guarantees, which included an increment of NPV of NT$212.4 billion, the purchase guarantee value of NT$22.6 billion and the loan guarantee value at NT$17 billion. Also, the value of the loan guarantee is NT$ 1.05 billion for the syndicate bank. To be more specific, these guarantee covenants are equivalent to the authorities granting purchase guarantees and loan guarantees to the consortium and syndicate bank at no charge. Furthermore, we also show that the optimal abandonment boundary of purchasing with loan guarantees is lower than only with a purchase guarantee.

並列關鍵字

purchase guarantee ； loan guarantee ； real option ； BOT

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