建立兩岸經濟合作機制是台灣免於經濟邊緣化的唯一選擇？一項總體經濟賽局模擬初評

Establishing a Chinese Economic Cooperative Mechanism: Taiwan's Only Chance to Prevent Economic Marginalization?

葉國俊(Kuo-Chun Yeh)

《經濟論文叢刊》 33卷4期 (2005/12) Pp. 229-261

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2005.334.1

摘要

近來東協加三與中港CEPA相繼成立但我國未能參與，引發台灣經濟邊緣化憂慮。本研究定義國際協作與邊緣化的關係，衡量中、台、美三國间的各項虛擬協作機制在面臨各種衝擊時，各國經濟穩定性是否優於非合作解。模擬結果顯示兩岸合作雖非唯一選擇，且中國未必能結合其他強權營造對我邊緣化壓力，但部分協作選項優於非合作解，意謂無法參與國際政策協作對我經濟確有負面影響。

關鍵字

經濟邊緣化 ； 兩岸經濟 ； 動態賽局

並列摘要

In Taiwan, economic marginalization has been a main concern due to imbalanced cross-strait economic and political relations, the country's failure to participate in important international organizations, and the endorsement of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Hong Kong and China in 2003. Is a regional cooperative mechanism, such as CEPA and its further extensions, the best choice for Taiwan's future economic development? This paper analyzes some options and their possible outcomes based on the current economic relationship among China, Taiwan, and the United States, and the principles of macroeconomic and international economic stabilization. The results are: (1) Taiwan does best by participating in regional cooperative mechanisms, putting aside the independence issue; (2) Taiwan keeps its independent political status and economic policy. The comparative analysis is preliminary but may be helpful in considering Taiwan's future economic and cross-strait policies.

並列關鍵字

marginalization ； Chinese Economic Area CEA ； dynamic game

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