Is Taiwan's Lowest-low Fertility Reversible via Socio-economic Development?

台灣的超低生育率可以透過經濟發展逆轉提升嗎？

陳肇男(Chao-Nan Chen) ； 劉克智(Paul Ke-Chih Liu)

《人口學刊》 34期 (2007/06) Pp. 1-36

摘要

本研究假設社經發展是人口數量改變的潛在機轉。在過去50年，台灣經歷了急劇的社經變化和快速的人口變遷。同步方程式因此被引用來整合社經因素探討對年齡別生育率之影響。估計所得的年齡別生育率再用來推計台灣2004-2033的人口。本研究的低與中推計結果接近行政院經建會同期間的中高推計，而兩者之高推計結果也接近。質言之，假如台灣社經發展呈快速成長總生育率有可能在2033年反彈到替代水準；假如社經發展呈中度成長，總生育率有可能回升到1.6；假如社經發展持續下挫，總生育率有可能維持在超低水準。

關鍵字

超低生育率 ； 人口推計 ； 社經發展

並列摘要

In this study, we assume that socio-economic development is the underlying mechanism for population changes. In the past 50 years, Taiwan has experienced drastic socio-economic changes and rapid population change. Simultaneous equations are thus used to integrate the effect of Taiwan's socio-economic factors on the projection of its age-specific fertility rate (ASFR). The estimated ASFR is then used to make population projections for Taiwan in the period 2004-2033. The results of our low and medium projections are close to the official (CEPD) medium-high projection for the same time period. The results of the high projection for both studies are rather similar too. Specifically, if Taiwan's socio-economic development grows at a high variant, its fertility would rebound to replacement level by 2033. If it follows the medium variant, fertility would rise to 1.6 births per woman. But if Taiwan's future socio-economic development grows sluggishly as in the assumed low variant case, Taiwan's fertility would remain at a lowest-low level.

並列關鍵字

Lowest-low fertility ； population projection ； socio-economic development

參考文獻

Adsera, A.(2004).Changing Fertility Rates in Developed: The Impact of Labor Market Institutions.Journal of Population Economics.17,17-43.

Bongaarts, J.(1999).Fertility Decline in the Developed World: Where Will it End?.American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings.89(2),256-260.

Bongaarts, J.(2001).Global Fertility Transition, Population and Development Review-A Supplement.New York:

Bongaarts, J.,Griffith, F.(1998).On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility.Population and Development Review.24(2),271-291.

Buttner, T.,W. Lutz.(1990).Estimating Fertility Responses to Policy Measures on the German Democratic Republic.Population and development Review.16(3),539-555.