代理人基模擬途徑的政治學方法論根基

代理人基模擬途徑(Agent-Based Modeling, ABM)過去十年在物理學、生物學、生態學、經濟學和管理學中受到矚目及應用。由於政治學也同樣處理許多複雜的現象，近年來政治學者使用ABM進行研究亦有增加。有別於統計學和計量經濟學重探討變數之間的因果關係，ABM這個研究方法強調解答過程性的問題（”how” questions或是”what if” questions），亦即藉由電腦程式模擬代理人(agents)之間的互動來觀察所欲探討的複雜現象如何形成，並依據觀察到的樣貌(patterns)來檢證理論，或是進一步來開創新理論。有鑑於台灣政治學界尚未感受到美國ABM發展的重要性，作者透過本文試圖綜覽這個途徑，並進一步指出ABM與科學實存論(scientific realism)論旨之間的相似性，初步推論科學實存論或可視爲這個研究方法的方法論根基。實證研究學者若能正視這個研究方法與科學哲學之間可能存在的連結，將可運用ABM來輔助因果關係背後的機制的探求；詮釋學研究者對這個連結的認識，將可運用ABM來具體化形塑之中的理論。文末整理了研究者在評估或使用ABM可能產生的誤解，以及ABM在跨領域合作上的潛力以及限制。

關鍵字

科學實存論；代理人基模擬；複雜適應系統；研究方法多元主義；因果機制

並列摘要

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has emerged as a promising approach to studying complex matters over the past twenty years. Scholars in the fields of physics, biology, economics, and business administration have both studied ABM and applied it to their research. For political scientists in Taiwan, however, although ABM may appear to be a promising new approach, it is easily seen as a computer-centered, video-game like method that does not help solve political inquiries. Tracing the history of this method and presenting its potential linkage to the development of scientific realism, this paper introduces this method in a systematical way and, more importantly, shows that proper use of ABM to explore ”how” and ”what if” questions will benefit positivists concerned about uncovering the causal mechanism of a phenomenon. Moreover, this method may also help interpretivists who are involved in developing theories from analysis of context and history. Because of the potential linkage between scientific realism and the ideas rooted in Santa Fe school, scholars using different approaches in political science will find that ABM can serve as a platform for cross-disciplinary cooperation, as well as for disciplinary sub-fields.

並列關鍵字

Scientific Realism ； Agent-Based Modeling ； Complex-Adaptive System ； Methodological Pluralism ； Causal Mechanism

參考文獻

林繼文(2005)。虛假霸權：台灣政治學研究中的理性選擇。政治科學論叢。25，67-104。

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

Google Scholar

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