臺北捷運內湖線都市發展推估方法之研究

A Urban Development Model for Areas along Taipei's Mass Rapid Transit Nei-hu Line

林峰田(Feng-Tyan Lin) ； 林佩憓(Pei-Hei Lin)

《規劃學報》 32期 (2005/12) Pp. 1-12

https://doi.org/10.6404/JP.200512.0001

摘要

本研究結合傳統的人口成長數理模型、地理資訊系統以及網格自動機(Cellular Automata, CA)電腦模擬技術，模擬台北市人口之成長與移動情形，並於模式中結合交通可及性之觀點，推論捷運站興建前後，捷運可及性對周邊不同區位人口之數量與區位變化之影響。本研究以台北市為範圍，將之細分為120公尺見方之網格系統，並依據統計要覽資料，考慮土地使用分區類別暨民國81年內政部地政司之國土利用調查基本資料，將民國82至92年之人口分派至各網格。然後，依據人口成長趨勢，利用空間統計方法，考量現有木柵線捷運站與周邊人口、土地使用、交通之空間相關性，建立捷運車站周邊人口成長之迴歸模式，分別估定其成長係數，並據以推估內湖線捷運車站未來周邊人口成長趨勢，俾供都市發展規劃之參考。

關鍵字

都市土地利用模擬 ； 網格自動機 ； 複雜系統

並列摘要

This research employs techniques of mathematical models, geographical information systems, cellular automata, and transportation accessibility to simulate the population growth along the Taipei's Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Nei-hu Line. A grid system of 120-meter resolution is used. The population from 2993 to 2003 is assigned to grids according annual population statistics and land use. The experience of urban development along MRT Jing-mei Line is studies. Regression models are established by considering the factors of land use, transportation facilities, and population growth trends including surrounding areas. Regression models are integrated into cellular models to simulate the future population growth along MRT Nei-hu Line. The result is very helpful for urban planners to make appropriate policies.

並列關鍵字

urban land use simulation ； cellular automata ； complex systems

參考文獻

Clarke K.C.,L. Gaydos,S. Hoppen(1997).A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area.Environment and Planning B.24.

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The IV International Conference on GeoComputation

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White R.,G. Engelen,I. Uljee(1997).The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modeling of urban land use dynamics.Environment and Planning B.24,323-343.