Lee Teng-hui's "Two-State" Theory: Perceptions and Policy Changee

李登輝的兩國論：認知與政策轉變

林能山(Neng-Shan Ling)

《東吳政治學報》 29卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 175-247

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.201112.0176

摘要

本文主張前總統李登輝於1998年中，決定強化台灣主權論述的動機是解釋1999年兩國論此一政策改變的主要因素。將兩國論決策過程的分析分成兩部分︰（1）為什麼1998年李總統決定強化台灣主權論述？（2）為什麼兩國論最後選擇在1999年發動？此舉將提供較完整的解釋—為什麼台北政府放棄 “一中政策” 轉而主張兩岸是特殊的國與國關係？將李前總統的兩國論開始於1998年中的發現納入兩國論的分析，產生兩個不同於現有文獻的研究結果—（1）國內因素的排除以及（2）外部因素的確認。

關鍵字

兩國論 ； 認知研究 ； 中程協議 ； 政治心理學

並列摘要

This paper argues that President Lee Teng-Hui's intention to enhance the legal status of Taiwan in mid-1998 is the major reason behind his launching of the ”two-state” theory in July 1999. By dividing the policymaking process of the ”two-state” theory into two parts - (a) the reasons for Lee's preparation of the policy change in 1998 and (b) his announcement of the policy change in 1999 - this article provides an insight into why the Lee administration moved away from its original China policy and instead promoted the ”two-state” theory. The application of Lee's motives for the policy change in mid-1998 to the research into the ”two-state” theory leads to the introduction of two new contributing factors to the literature dealing with this policy shift; first, the influence of domestic politics needs be downplayed, if not excluded, and, secondly, external factors, hitherto under-acknowledged or ignored, are identified.

並列關鍵字

"two-state" theory ； perception approach ； interim agreements

參考文獻

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Nye, Joseph S. Jr. 1998. “A Taiwan Deal.” Washington Post 8 March 1998, late ed.: C7

Perry, William J. 2000. “The Future of U.S.-China Engagement.” in http://www.ncuscr.org/. Lastest update 3 December 2010.

(Roth, Stanley O. 1999. “The Taiwan Relations Act at Twenty - and Beyond.” Presentation to the Woodrow Wilson Centre and the American Institute in Taiwan).