選舉干預如何影響外交政策與民主運作？以1946-2000年美蘇的選舉干預為例

How Electoral Intervention Influences the Similarities of Foreign Policy and Democracy: Electoral Intervention of the United States and Russia (the Soviet Union) from 1946-2000

蔡承翰(Cheng-Han Tsai)

《東吳政治學報》 39卷2期 (2021/08) Pp. 1-54

摘要

外交援助、經濟制裁、軍事干預、選舉干預是國家常在國際社會使用的外交工具。過去研究指出外交援助對於受贈國的經濟發展有正面與負面的影響。另外，軍事干預、選舉干預、經濟制裁則是會對目標國的民主程度產生損害。Levin（2021）指出美國對其他國家成功的選舉干預會增加兩國之間外交政策的相似性。本文以「美蘇的黨派選舉干預」（Partisan Electoral Intervention by the Great Powers, PEIG）資料庫來驗證選舉干預與外交政策相似性之間的相關性。因為PEIG資料庫是以虛擬變數來處理選舉干預，並無法看出選舉干預的程度（degree）差異，以及影響選舉干預程度的因素。因此，本文採用貝氏潛在因素模型（Bayesian latent factor model）來探討影響選舉干預程度的因素。根據貝氏潛在因素模型的結果，1946年至2000年，美國與俄羅斯（蘇聯）的軍事實力是兩國選舉干預程度的重要因素。同時本文發現，美國對其他國家的選舉干預確實會增加兩國之間外交政策的相似性。但兩國外交政策立場接近的前提是，美國的選舉干預侵害了該國的民主制度，尤其是水平式的民主課責機制（horizontal accountability）。

關鍵字

選舉干預 ； 民主程度 ； 選舉干預程度 ； 貝氏潛在因素模型 ； 水平式的民主課責機制

並列摘要

Foreign aid, economic sanctions, and military and electoral interventions are standard diplomatic tools in international society. There is an opposite debate about whether foreign aid contributes to economic development in recipient countries based on past research. Besides, military interventions, electoral interventions, and economic sanctions will hurt the level of democracy in the recipient countries. Levin (2021) demonstrated that successful electoral interventions of the United States would increase the similarities of foreign policy between the United States and recipient countries. In this article, I apply Partisan Electoral Intervention by the Great Powers dataset (PEIG) to investigate the correlation between electoral interventions, democracy, and the similarities in foreign policy. Because PEIG utilized dummy variables to proxy electoral interventions, we cannot distinguish the dimensions of electoral interventions from the various types of electoral intervention. Moreover, we cannot explore how the latent factors affect the degree of electoral interventions. Hence, I apply the Bayesian latent factor model to explore how unobserved and observed factors will influence the degree of electoral interventions. Based on the results of the Bayesian latent factor variables, from 1946 to 2000, the strength of military power drove the degree of electoral interventions of the United States and Russia (Soviet Union). Also, there is indifference between the strength of the covert and overt electoral means. At the same time, I figured out that the electoral interventions from the United States will increase the similarities of foreign policy with the host governments. However, the premise is that the electoral interventions from the United States will hurt the horizontal accountability of the host governments; hence, they will have similar foreign positions.

並列關鍵字

electoral interventions ； the level of democracy ； the degree of electoral intervention ； Bayesian latent factor model ； horizontal accountability

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