國防預算配置動態模式之研究

A Study on System Dynamics Model for National Defense Budget Allocation

葉金成(Chin-Chen Yeh) ； 劉自強(Z-John Liu) ； 洪瑞峰(Jui-Feng Hung)

《國防管理學報》 29卷1期 (2008/05) Pp. 29-51

https://doi.org/10.29496/JNDM.200805.0003

摘要

現階段向於我國朝已開發國家之林邁進，政府施政的多元發展，國防預算占中央政府總預算比率逐年遞減，預估未來國防預算規模之成長仍然有限。在整體國家資源分配中，國防部門確處於資源競爭失利狀態，本研究係探討我國國防系統於自我維持型態下，如何以較佳之預算配置，獲得較合理且較能維持基本戰力之國防。研究採系統動態學方法，經向系統思考方式建構動態定性與定量模式，並向模式分析未來短、中期政策調整後，國防資源配置結果及其影響。研究發現：國軍現階段刻正執行「精進案」之精兵政策，已將總員額降至目標員額，然因應薪酬調整、官士兵配比及募兵等相關政策實施，人員維持費占國防預算比例仍高達60%以上，未來仍需調增國防預算規模因應；而軍事資產所生之基本作業維持需求，宜採維護塞本妥善率爲原則。

關鍵字

資源配置 ； 系統動態學 ； 國內生產毛額

並列摘要

As our country has been transiting into the developed country, government diversified policies are inevitable. Therefore, the proportion of National defense budget in total government budgets is getting decreased year by year. We predict that the future national defense budget will suffer a setback in whole national resources. This text, therefore, probes into how to maintain a basic national defense power with a better budget allocation model which is under the self-maintained type. We build dynamic quantified and qualified models using the theory of system dynamics to analyze the results and impacts of short-term and middle-term policies on national resources allocation. As the results are that, though the ”National Armed Forces Refining program” is carried out, personnel cost still reaches 60% of whole national defense budget with the effect of salary adjustment, officers and soldier ratio, and a mercenary system. Once we increase national defense budget, the ratio of personnel cost in whole national defense budget could declined. To maintain the basic operational demand derived from military assets, we should maintain the basic ”availability”.

並列關鍵字

resources allocation ； system dynamics ； gross domestic product