德爾菲預測術－一種專家預測的護理研究方法

Delphi Technique: A Nursing Research Method for Experts' Forecasting Opinions

邱淑芬(Shwu-Fen Chiou) ； 蔡欣玲(Sing-Ling Tsai)

《護理研究》 4卷1期 (1996/03) Pp. 92-98

https://doi.org/10.7081/NR.199603.0092

摘要

德爾菲預測術是一種專家預測法，主要目的是以科學性的方法，彙整專家門一致性意見，介供給主管者做為決策的參考或預測某一事件的發展趨勢。此方法特點是由專業家群提供意見，以匿名方式，透過多次反覆循環問卷收集資料，並以描述性統計方法呈現圃體意見。在歐美護理界已廣泛運用德爾菲預測術，來探討臨床護理研究的優先次序、預測未來護理教育人力與資源，以及分析護理主管者的能力等各層面的護理問題。而國內護理領域中，應用德爾菲預測術的研究報告相當缺乏，因此從事護理研究者可以運用德爾菲預測術的特性，洞察目前護理專業發展現況與問題，做爲規劃護理政策的參攷，同時預測未來護理髮展的方向。

關鍵字

德爾菲預測術 ； 護理研究

並列摘要

The Delphi technique is a forecasting method which provides systematic collective method to aggregate the most reliable consensus of opinion from a group of experts on specific questions and issues. The Delphi technique aims to provide the data for prediction of future trend. The method has four key characteristics: the use of panel of experts, anonymity, iteration with controlled feedback, and statistical group response. The Delphi technique has been used to develop clinical nursing research priority, to predict the role and manpower of nurse teacher in the future, and to identify the competency of nurse managers in nursing field of western country for several years. In our country, the Delphi technique was seldom used as a research method in nursing studies. The nursing researchers may be utilize this technique to examine the problem of nursing profession, to plan a policy and predict future directions of nursing profession development.

並列關鍵字

Delphi technique ； nursing research