菸品健康捐調升前後的需求價格彈性

The Price Elasticity of Cigarettes after an Increase in Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge

李卓倫(Jwo-Leun Lee) ； 林霖(Lin Lin) ； 陳江明(Chiang-Ming Chen)

《台灣公共衛生雜誌》 32卷5期 (2013/10) Pp. 491-501

https://doi.org/10.6288/TJPH2013-32-05-08

摘要

目標：我國於2009年將菸品健康捐由10元調高為20元，本研究嘗試分析此次菸品健康捐增稅前後對菸品需求量價格彈性是否有所影響。方法：本研究結合2007年與2010年兩次全國性調查的資料，比較提高菸品健康捐前後的菸品需求是否改變；在控制人口變項的條件下，本研究分別估計2007年與2010年吸菸者的價格彈性。結果：2010年菸品需求曲線相較於2007年更為平坦，表示菸品健康捐調升後民眾對於菸品價格的敏感度增加，當菸價伴隨健康捐調升時，如果暫不考慮走私菸品的攝取因素，則菸品健康捐對於2010年吸菸者的吸菸量有較強的抑制作用；另一方面，2010年的調查顯示有20.33％的吸菸者，因為菸品健康捐之課徵而開始使用其他品牌之菸品，月收入較低之吸菸族群較容易改用其他品牌的菸品。結論：菸品政策會使菸品消費行為產生結構性改變。

關鍵字

菸品健康捐 ； 菸品價格 ； 菸品需求 ； 價格彈性 ； 品牌轉換

並列摘要

Objectives: The Health and Welfare Surcharge on Tobacco in Taiwan increased to NT$20 per pack in 2009, following two other increases of NT$5 and NT$10 in 2002 and 2006, respectively. The aim of this study was to examine whether the 2009 increase in earmarked tax created changes in the pattern of tobacco consumption. Methods: This study compared cigarette consumption before and after the surcharge increase in 2009 by examining the 2007 and 2010 Taiwan Adult Tobacco Survey data. After controlling for demographic variables, we estimated the cigarette price elasticity in the 2007 and 2010 surveys. Results: The demand curve in the 2010 survey was flatter than that in the 2007 survey; this indicated that smokers became more price-elastic after the Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge increase in 2009. When the price of cigarettes increased gradually, the surcharge created a stronger effect on discouraging smoking based on the 2010 observations. Moreover, 20.33% of the smokers in the 2010 panel reportedly switched their cigarette brands after the 2009 surcharge increase. Smokers with lower income were more likely to switch brands. Conclusions: A tobacco-related price strategy as part of health policy can lead to substantial quantitative and qualitative changes in tobacco consumption.

並列關鍵字

tobacco health and welfare surcharge ； cigarettes price ； cigarettes demand ； price elasticity ； brand switching

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