架構效應與順序效應對股票投資判斷之影響

The Influence of Framing Effect and Order Effect on Investors' Judgment

顏信輝(Sin-Hui Yen) ； 丁緯(Wei Ting)

《證券市場發展季刊》 17卷1期 (2005/04) Pp. 41-78

https://doi.org/10.6529/RSFM.2005.17(1).2

摘要

心理學與行為財務學之研究發現人類之認知能力只是有限度的，架構效應與順序效應是心理學家所提出解釋決策偏誤的兩個重要理論。本研究以71位具工作經驗與股票投資經驗之碩士在職專班學生為受試者，以實驗方式探討架構效應與順序效應對股票投資判斷之影響。研究發現受試者對於相同經濟意義之資訊，於採正面方式陳述時會顯著較採負面陳述時，予以較樂觀之解釋，也會形成較樂觀之股票投資判斷，即呈現顯著之架構效應。在混合型資訊之陳列順序方面，受試者之投資判斷呈現顯著之時近效應，即對於採先不利後有利之順序陳述者，會顯著樂觀於採先有利後不利之順序者之股票投資判斷。而在一致型之資訊陳列順序方面，並未出現順序效應，此二種順序效應之發現均符合Hogarth與Einhorn（1992）之信念調整模型之預測。前述各發現於控制受試者風險態度之差異後，均仍然能成立。

關鍵字

架構效應 ； 順序效應 ； 時近效應 ； 行為財務

並列摘要

Research on psychology and behavioral finance finds that individuals are bound by human cognitive limitations. Both framing and order effects, which can bias judgments and decisions, are well documented by psychologists. The purpose of this study is to explore framing and order effects in stock investment judgment. The experimental result, according to the response from 71 EMBA subjects with stock investment experience, shows that subjects are subject to the framing effect. That is, investors with positive-frame information exhibit more optimistic investment judgment than that of negative-frame information counterpart. In addition, this study confirms the order effect prediction of belief-adjustment model provided by Hogarth and Einhorn (1992). The main results of this study are not influenced by the differences of the subject's risk-attitudes.

並列關鍵字

Framing Effect ； Order Effect ； Recency Effect ； Behavioral Finance

參考文獻

邱耀初(2003)。框架效應存在嗎?籌碼效應對風險決策之影響。中華心理學刊。45(2)，171-182。

Asare, S.(1992).The Auditor`s Going Concern Decision: Interaction of Task Variables and the equential Processing of Evidence.The Accounting Review.37,379-393.

Ashton, A. H.,R. H. Ashton(1988).Sequential Belief Revision in Auditing.The Accounting Review.63,623-641.

Ashton, A. H.,R. H. Ashton(1988).Sequential Belief Revision in Audition.The Accounting Review.63,623-641.

Bernard, V. L.,K. Schipper(1994).Recognition and Disclosure in Financial Reporting.