個股波動不對稱性之實證研究：以台灣股票市場爲例

An Empirical Study on the Asymmetric Volatility of Individual Stocks: The Case of Taiwan Stock Market

林楚雄(Chu-Hsiung Lin)

《中山管理評論》 13卷4期 (2005/12) Pp. 811-836

https://doi.org/10.6160/2005.12.02

摘要

本文研究台灣股票市場個股報酬波動之不對稱性，並檢定槓桿效果假說與當期報酬－波動假說何者較能解釋台股波動的不對稱性。研究期間為1993年到2001年，涵蓋亞洲金融危機前後時期。實證結果為(1)在金融危機前後兩時期，股票報酬波動呈現不對稱性的上市（上櫃）公司分別僅佔樣本的13%(9%)與10%(2%)，顯示台灣股票市場個股波動的不對稱性並非普遍存在，而與目前文獻的研究結果不同。(2)在金融危機前後時期，個股報酬波動的不對稱性並不相同，隱含市場結構性改變影響波動不對稱性的行為。(3)無法支持槓桿效果假說而當期報酬－波動假說有部分的解釋能力。

關鍵字

波動不對稱性 ； 指數型的一般化自我迴歸條件異質變異數模型 ； 一般化誤差分配 ； 槓桿效果

並列摘要

This study investigates the behavior of the asymmetric volatility of all the individual stocks in the Taiwan stock market. The daily data from 1993 to 2001 are used, covering the period of the Asian financial crisis. The empirical results show that only 13% (9%) and 10% (2%) of the listed companies (OTC companies) exhibited asymmetric return volatility before and after the Asian financial crisis, respectively. This result differs from those of current studies on index and individual stocks. Furthermore, it was found that before and after the financial crisis, the volatility asymmetry on the return of individual stock has not been the same. This implies that the structural change of the market did affect asymmetric volatility behavior. Finally, the empirical results do not support leverage effect hypothesis, and the hypothesis proposed by Duffee (1995) can explain the part of the asymmetric volatility behavior.

並列關鍵字

Asymmetric Volatility Effect ； EGARCH Model ； Generalized Error Distribution ； Leverage Effect