中國「王道」戰略文化的實證檢驗：國民政府戰後對日「以德報怨」政策的案例研究

隨著中國不斷地「崛起」，中國的對外行為將對世界局勢產生重大影響。但崛起後的中國究竟會如何行事？除了傳統上現實主義（realism）學派所注重的物質能力解釋，建構主義（constructivism）學派所重視的戰略文化（strategic culture）解釋，就成了另一個研究的焦點。有關中國的戰略文化，核心的問題在於「霸道」與「王道」之辯，也就是中國是否有著不同於西方「霸道」的「王道」戰略文化，因而能夠在崛起之後採取和平的對外行為？在迄今已出現的多個世代研究中，最新的世代的研究採取了「物質基礎、理念慣性」的觀點，以清朝為實證研究的對象，並已初步發現「王道」戰略文化確實影響中國對外行為的證據。不過，新世代研究所還不能回答的，是此一「王道」戰略文化理念慣性的延續，究竟能到何種程度？本研究試圖以二次大戰結束時國民政府對日的「以德報怨」政策為案例，來探究這理念慣性的延續，以為當今有關戰略文化的理論爭議，與有關因應中國崛起的政策辯論，提供參照。

關鍵字

王道；霸道；以德報怨；戰略文化；理念慣性

並列摘要

As China continues to ＂rise,＂ its external behavior will have a significant impact to the world. Will a risen China be peaceful? In addition to the conventional wisdom of realism, which focused on material capabilities, a constructivist explanation based on strategic culture becomes another focus of study. The core issue regarding China's strategic culture is the debate between ＂hegemony＂ and ＂benevolent.＂ Does China have a ＂benevolent＂ strategic culture different from the ＂hegemony＂ and can thus be peaceful after its rise? So far, there has been several generations of studies, and the latest generation introduced the perspective of ＂material basis, ideational inertia,＂ took Qing Dynasty as the period of observation, and found that benevolent strategic culture does affect China's behavior. Nonetheless, this new generation still can not answer a crucial question: To what extent can the inertia of benevolent strategic culture sustain? This project attempts to explore this question and thus shed light on the continuing controversy about the strategic culture and the policy debate regarding how to deal with a rising China.