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冷戰後俄印關係的演變與侷限

The Evolution and Limitations of Russo-Indian Relations After the Cold War

摘要


冷戰後俄中關係的提升,讓印度在俄羅斯外交裡逐漸失去過往箝制中國的戰略意義。儘管如此,俄印關係卻仍在轉變提升中。俄印兩國各有所圖,也需要彼此。但印度不願過度依賴俄羅斯而力行多元化政策,俄羅斯也難以施壓印度,僅能被動因應,並不斷提供誘因以維繫雙邊關係。冷戰後的俄印關係因而形成一種動態的平衡。俄印關係未來的演變端視俄羅斯實力的變化而定,俄羅斯若能從目前的區域大國身分脫困,俄印關係自會對應提升。

並列摘要


The improvement of Russo-Chinese relations after the Cold War makes India gradually lose its strategic significance in Russian foreign policy; nevertheless, Russo- Indian relations still develop positively. Russia and India have their own intentions but still need each other. However, India does not want to rely too much on Russia and implement its diversification policy. It is also difficult for Russia to pressure India. Russia only can passively react and continuously provide India incentives to maintain their relations. Russo-Indian relations after the Cold War thus form a dynamic balance. The future evolution of Russo-Indian relations depends on the change in Russia’s power. If Russia can get out of the current regional power predicament, Russo-Indian relations will change accordingly.

參考文獻


劉蕭翔,「對外政策」,收於國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所主編,當代俄羅斯(臺北:五南,2016 年),頁123-156。
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“India to Respond to US Refusal for Sanctions Waiver Over S-400 – Strategist,” Sputnik, (August 30, 2018).
Chaudhury, Nilova Roy, “India-Russia move towards co-production of defence equipment,” Russia & India Report, http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/06/02/india-russia_move_towards_co-production_of_defence_equipment_43451 (June 2, 2015).
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