中華職籃觀眾參與之預測模式研究

The Study of Prediction Model of Chinese Basketball Association Spectators Participation

施致平(Chih-pin Shih)

《體育學報》 30期 (2001/03) Pp. 131-142

https://doi.org/10.6222/pej.0030.200103.3513

摘要

中華職籃CBA1994年11月12日正式開球，曾為國內籃壇帶來盛會，也帶領國內籃界進入新紀元，然因受母企業金融風暴與轉播權利金糾紛之影響，CBA不得不於1999年3月14日中止職籃五年的運作，等待另一個新的契機。因此，本研究以職籃復賽前之千禧紀念賽的現場觀眾為研究對象，其主要目的旨在了解中華職籃觀眾之特性、探討影響觀眾觀賞職籃之因素、了解觀眾的觀賞滿意度及對中華職籃未來發展之信心，並進而建立中華職籃觀眾參與之預測模式。
本研究採用由研究者經相關文獻彙整並與專家學者討論、編製而成的「中華職籃運動觀賞量表」為研究工具，以分層隨機抽樣方式抽取受試者共500名，有效樣本為493，樣本有效率為98.6％。此外，本研究採用描述統計及相關分析探討觀眾參與中華職籃之情形，並以羅吉氏迴歸(logisticregression)分析模式篩選影響因子，建立中華職籃參與之預測模式。
本研究發現，20歲以下之女學生為中華職籃的主要觀眾群，並從羅吉氏迴歸分析之勝數比(odds ratio)中發現，球隊認同、球賽之娛樂效果及觀眾個人之喜愛是影響觀眾參與中華職籃的正向預測因子；球館之舒適性、球賽之精彩性、球賽之剌激與緊張度及文宣造勢活動是影響觀眾觀賞滿意度的正向預測因子；球隊之認同與整體滿意度則為影響觀眾對中華職籃未來發展信心之正向預測因子。
有鑑於此，依據結果顯示，職籃公司應以20歲以下之女學生群為經營主體，以強化觀眾對職籃球隊認同為經營主軸，以滿足觀眾對職籃之需求為經營方針，如此，方能達到職籃永續經營的目的。

關鍵字

中華職籃CBA ； 現場觀眾 ； 預測模式 ； 滿意度 ； 參與

並列摘要

With unremitting endeavor and meanwhile with passionate expectation, the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) launched out into operation on November 12, 1994. It not only brought a gala to the domestic basketball circle but opened a new era to the circle. On March 14, 1999, however, the CBA had no other option but to suspend its 5th season due to the financial difficulties of the parent enterprises as well as the dispute of televised right fees and wait for the reopening ceremony. As a result, the spectators of the CBA millennium commemoration games were collected as the subjects for this study. The purpose aimed at understanding the background and characteristics of the CBA spectators, their gratification, the factors that influenced them to watch CBA games, and their confidence in CBA’s future development. Finally a prediction model was proposed to anticipate the CBA participation.
The questionnaire of CBA spectators, initially edited from literature review and professional discussion, was revised by the researcher as the instrumentation of this study. With a stratified sampling technique, a total of 500 subjects was selected for this study with 493 valid ones achieving 98.6% rate. In addition, descriptive statistics and correlation analysis were used to determine spectators’ involvement in the games. Lastly, the logistic regression was utilized, to sift the influential factors and to develop the prediction model of CBA participation.
The results indicated that females who were students and under the age of 20 were the CBA target audiences. Based upon the odds ratio of logistic regression, this study found that team identification, game entertainment, and spectators’ preference were positive predictive factors related to spectators’ involvement in the CBA. Secondly, this study found that stadium accessibility, attractiveness of the games, stimulation of the games, and propaganda of the games were positive predictive factors in fulfilling spectators’ gratification after their attendance at the games. Finally, team identification and entire gratification were the positive predictive factors with regard to spectator’s confidence in CBA’s future development.
Based on the research results, the CBA should target its audiences on females who are students and under the age of 20, strengthen the spectators’ sense of team identification, and satisfy their gratification and expectation for the CBA. In so doing, the CBA will be a perpetual enterprise without doubt.

並列關鍵字

Chinese Basketball Association (CBA ； Spectator ； Predication Model ； Gratification ； Participation

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