921地震對台灣國際觀光旅館之衝擊－介入模式

The Impact of 921 Earthquake for International Hotels in Taiwan-Intervention Model

賴素鈴(Sue-Ling Lai) ； 郭春敏(Chun-Min Kuo)

《觀光研究學報》 9卷1期 (2003/06) Pp. 123-175

https://doi.org/10.6267/JTLS.2003.9(1)8

摘要

「921」大地震是台灣近百年來最嚴重的自然災害，造成人命財產、公共設施及橋
樑、學校及政府機關房舍的嚴重毀損。而旅館業亦受到很大的衝擊，本研究亦經由整合自我迴歸移動平均模型及介入模型等統計分析證實，花蓮之台灣國際觀光旅館住房率在該年九月即有明顯下降之情形，台中、台北、高雄、風景等地區之台灣國際觀光旅館住房率則遞延至該年十月才有明顯下降之情形。研究結果亦得知921地震對台灣大部分地區，除了「其他」地區之外之觀光旅館皆有明顯影響，但各地觀光旅館所受到之影響程度不等，其衝擊強度最大的是花蓮地區。模式配適度檢測結果皆顯示，本研究所估計之台灣各地區國際觀光旅館住房率預測模式具有良好的預測能力，希望研究結果能對政府相關單位及國際觀光旅館的經營管理者在決策訂定時能有所幫助，尤其對921地震衝擊較大區域之國際觀光旅館也值得我們的注意與關心。

關鍵字

921地震 ； 國際觀光旅館 ； 整合自我回歸移動平均模型 ； 介入模式

並列摘要

The most serious earthquake in Taiwan in the 20(superscript th) century struck the central region of the island on September 21(superscript st), 1999. This earthquake made terrible human casualties and infrastructure damages. Many buildings were destroyed; roadway, water, sewage, gas, power systems and school were cut. To see if there was any impact on international hotels in Taiwan after the earthquake occurred, this research studied the trend of the occupancy rate for the international hotels using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models. The impact of September 21(superscript st) earthquake was evaluated through the Interventional analysis. The empirical results showed that international hotels, except for ”other area”, underwent the significant earthquake impact to different extent. Hotels in Haw-Lang areas suffered from the greatest impact. The estimated models were adequate for forecasting and the results can be used as a reference for the government officers when they make decisions of public policies or planning. Besides above, through the study results, we wish to call forth more concern and attention of people to the immense earthquake's impact on international hotels for certain areas.

並列關鍵字

921 Earthquakes ； International Hotel ； ARIMA ； and Intervention Model

參考文獻

中時電子報

行政院主計處

行政院經濟建設委員會

行政院經建會經研處

民視新聞網