The Entry/Exit Real Options Model for the Tourism Industry: A Case Focusing on a Hot Springs Resort in Taiwan

市場進入與退出之實質選擇權模式在觀光產業上之應用：以台灣溫泉旅館為例

石東立(Tung-Li Shih) ； 張國謙(Kuo-Chien Chang) ； 傅屏華(Ping-Hua Fu)

《觀光研究學報》 12卷1期 (2006/03) Pp. 1-22

https://doi.org/10.6267/JTLS.2006.12(1)1

摘要

本文旨在針對台灣觀光市場中溫泉產業，於營收不確定情況下求取最適進入與退出門檻值。本研究假設營收服從幾何布朗運動下，發展嶄新的進入決策模式，以作為國外投資者進入與退出台灣溫泉觀光事業之策略選擇的參考。此外，本研究對於實質選擇權方法與傳統淨現值方法間之差異予以討論。結論發現，當營收高於最適進入門檻（33.7908百萬元新台幣）時，國外投資者將會投入台灣溫泉觀光事業之經營，若是營收低於最適退出門檻（3.9285百萬元新台幣）時，則國外投資者可能不會選擇繼續投入此事業之經營。總結而論，本研究期能經由對於市場進入與退出策略之財務模型的分析，而能協助國外投資者在對於投資台灣觀光溫泉市場時能有重完善之考量。此研究期望經由國外投資者的加入，能加強台灣溫泉觀光事業的競爭力以及使其重加蓬勃的發展，進而成為國際性的觀光旅遊景點。

關鍵字

溫泉休閒觀光產業 ； 進入與退出策略 ； 實質選擇權方法

並列摘要

This paper examines the optimal threshold for income uncertainty when dealing with entry-exit strategies for the hot spring industry in Taiwan's tourism market. Specifically, a new entry decision model will be developed based on the assumption that operating income growth follows geometric Brownian motion. In addition, the differences between the real options approach and the traditional net present value method are also discussed. When operating income surpasses the optimal exit threshold, foreign investors should stay in the hot springs tourism market in Taiwan. When operating income is lower than the optimal exit threshold, the foreign hot spring investor should invest the necessary exit capital and return to their parent country. To sum up, through the above analysis of the financial model of entry and exit strategies, this study expects to assist foreign investors in considering investments in the hot spring resort tourism industry of Taiwan, while at the same time increased the international tourism competitiveness of Taiwan and the Taiwanese Hot Springs in order for them to become an international holiday destination.

並列關鍵字

hot springs resort tourism industry ； entry/exit strategy ； real options approach

參考文獻

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