The Relative Importance of Partisanship, Issue, and Candidate in American Presidential Electoral Behavior-A Discussion of Methodology and Case Study

影響美國總統選舉投票行為的因素：政策、政黨及候選人之相對重要性

盛治仁(Emile Chih-Jen Sheng)

《選舉研究》 6卷1期 (1999/05) Pp. 67-110

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.1999.06.01.67-110

摘要

本文主要在研究美國總統選舉過程中，政策考量、政黨認同、及候選人特質等因素的相對重要性。在統計方法上，作者以符合即時資訊處理（on-line information processing）理論的方式來建構變項。過去的研究以開放式問卷來評估候選人影響力的方式可能會低估候選人實質的影響力。作者發現，以全體選民整體而言，候選人的人格特質在三個變項裡有最大的影響力，而且候選人特質也會透過投射及說服作用，對選民的政策考慮造成顯著的非直接影響。

關鍵字

投票行為 ； 兩階段迴歸 ； 候選人中心政治

並列摘要

This study focuses on the analysis of the relative importance of policy considerations, candidate personality assessments, and partisanship in the presidential selection process. In constructing my statistical models, I utilize developments in information processing theory to construct variables that conform to the on-line information processing assumption. Previous studies using open-ended questions to operationalize candidate assessments may underestimate their effects. I find that for the whole electorate, the personal characteristics of candidates have the most effect of the three schemata under examination, and there is a strong indirect influence of candidate assessment on policy considerations through projection and persuasion effects.

並列關鍵字

presidential election ； voting behavior ； two-stage least square ； candidate-centered politics

參考文獻

Archer, Keith(1987).A Simultaneous Equation Model of Canadian Voting Behavior.Canadian Journal of Political Science.20(3)

Brady, H. E., Hagen, M. G.(1986).Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association.Washington, D. C.:

Brady, H. E., Johnston, R.(1987).Media and Momentum: The New Hampshire Primary and Nomination Politics.Chatham, N. J.:

Brody, R. A., Page, B. I.(1972).The Assessment of Policy Voting.American Political Science Review.66

Cain, Bruce E., Ferejohn, John A.(1981).A Comparison of Party Identification in the United States and Great Britain.Comparative Political Studies.14