傳統與現代：八十六年桃園縣長選舉的選後評估

The Modernization of Campaign Strategy: A Case Study of 1997 Taoyuan County Magistrate Election

洪永泰(Yung-Tai Hung)

《選舉研究》 6卷2期 (1999/11) Pp. 1-21

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.1999.06.02.01-21

摘要

本文以總體資料和抽樣調查的個體資料嘗試探索選戰實務中組織戰與文宣戰孰重的問題，企圖連結學術研究者與競選總部操盤者之間的鴻溝，勉強以傳統與現代做為兩邊的代碼，並試探以民意調查做為研判選情依據的可能性。總體資料的分析證實了組織動員的力量確實存在，不過並不構成勝負的主要關鍵，隨著時代的變遷，他們佔總選票的百分比將日漸萎縮。其次，個體性的資料分析也證實民意調查資料可以反映文宣和形象戰的成效，不過要達到良好功能還必須加入動員網絡題材和大眾傳播行為研究，此外還得配合競選策略的規劃，事先做好全程的研究設計方能竟其功。

關鍵字

選舉預測 ； 選舉策略 ； 總體資料 ； 民意調查

並列摘要

Managers of campaign headquarters often find it difficult to balance resource allocations between mobilization and propaganda divisions. The issue is critical in the battlefield but usually over-looked by academic circle. The study looks into the phenomenon using both aggregate and survey data and tries to explore the possibility of utilizing results of opinion polls for evaluating candidate performance. Analysis of aggregate data confirms the strength of mobilization but finds its role less significant. Its share of vote getting is shrinking as time changes. On the other hand, analysis of survey data shows that opinion polls can actually reflect the effectiveness of candidates' strategy in image building. However, if a re-search work want to get the most out of opinion polls it must plan ahead, hands in hands with campaign strategy, and put in more ingredients of network and communication behaviors.

並列關鍵字

Election forecasting ； campaign strategy ； aggregate data ； survey data

參考文獻

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