Geographical Voting Bases and the Stability of Candidates' Voter Coalitions(1989~1998)

選舉地盤：候選人票源凝聚程度之分析

鮑彤(Nathan Batto)

《選舉研究》 8卷1期 (2001/05) Pp. 211-251

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.211-251

摘要

台灣選舉預測的主要誤差來源有三大類：調查過程產生的誤差、測量方式與指標的移植、以及無反應的選民。本文嘗試從特質調整模型出發，用基礎模型與延伸模型的兩階段操作方式，以對數迴歸所模擬計算出的投票抉擇機率，來進行1997年台北縣長的選舉預測。資料涵蓋當年度個體資料與歷年來總體資料，一方面呼應了政治學理論中有關不確定性的陳述，一方面也進行選舉預測的誤差控制。最後發現以特質調整模型預測1997年縣市長選舉的誤差，均小於百分之九十五信心水準之下的抽樣誤差。

關鍵字

兢選策略 ； 政治版圖 ； 選舉地盤 ； 選舉穩定性

並列摘要

There are three types of error in Taiwan's election prediction:errorsfrom survey process,transplanting of measure scale,and no response voter.This paper try to reduce the error of election prediction via”Joined IdiosyncrasiesAdjusted Model”(JIA Model).JIA Model was operated bytwo stages.First,I compute a basic model,which reflects some generalfactors in every county.Secondly,I design extended model to adjust theoutput of basic model.In JIA Model,I try to use logistic regression tocompute the candidate's ballots,and present the final prediction in probability.In this paper,I try to explain in example of 1997 Taipei MayoralElection.I consider the factors of issue orientation,strategic voting,socialcontext and political map.JIA Model made the error less than samplingerrors.

並列關鍵字

campaign strategy ； political geography ； electoral base ； electoral stability

參考文獻

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