選舉預測誤差控制的嘗試：以特質調整模型(JIA Model)爲例

An Attempt to Reduce the Error of Election Prediction: JIA Model

范凌嘉(Ling-Jia Fan)

《選舉研究》 8卷1期 (2001/05) Pp. 25-69

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.25-69

摘要

本研究選擇政治大學選舉研究中心的面訪資料，針對1989年至1999年間我國獨立選民的發展與變遷情形，分別就「我國獨立選民政黨認同及社會背景的發展與變遷」、「我國獨立選民政治涉入的發展與變遷」、「我國獨立選民投票取向的發展與變遷」及「影響獨立選民發展與變遷的因素」等方面作分析。研究結果發現：我國獨立選民的比例雖然有下降的趨勢，但是近年來此種趨勢似乎有逆轉的情形，且獨立選民比例的高低的確會受到選舉制度不同的影響。獨立選民的社會背景也和政黨認同者有差異，他們的政治涉入較政黨認同者爲低，對候選人及政黨評價較低，對議題保持中立的立場，投票時比較會考量候選人的條件優劣，較不會依政黨界限投票。與此同時，我們也發現獨立選民的組成上是由政治知識及政治涉入較低的「冷漠型獨立選民」，逐漸轉變爲政治知識及政治涉入較高的「理想型獨立選民」。在未來的發展趨勢上，我們預期獨立選民的比例應該還有下降的可能性。在民主化的進程繼續推展，政黨政治日益成熟穩定之後，我們預期有政黨認同的選民會呈現增長的趨勢，與此同時，獨立選民並不會大幅度的減少。基於獨立選民是理想公民的期待，我們相信還是會有一定比例的民衆認爲自己是獨立選民，但正如同我們觀察到的，此時的獨立選民將不再是對政治一無所知，或是對政治冷漠的冷漠型獨立選民；而將成爲對政治保持高度關注，並能依自己客觀的態度做出政治決定的理想公民。

關鍵字

選舉預測 ； 不確定性 ； 對數迴歸模型 ； 投票行爲 ； 無反應選民

並列摘要

This thesis using individual level survey data to analyze the developingand changing situation of independent voters in Taiwan from 1989through 1999.In particular,this thesis examines changing party identificationand social background of independent voters,changing political involvementamong independent voters,changing vote intentions of independentvoters,and the facts which have influenced the develop of independentvoters.Our research outcomes have shown that although the percentageof independent voters in Taiwan has declined,in recent years thistrend seems to have reversed,The percentage of independent voters hasactually been influenced by changes in the electoral system.There are differencesin social background between independents and party identifiers.The degree of political involvement of independent voters is lower thanthat of party identifiers.Their evaluation of candidates and parties is alsolower than those of party identifiers.They tend to stay neutral to all politicalissues.when making their voting decisions,they tend to consider theconditions of the candidates,rather than voting by the boundary ofparties.However,we also discover that independent voters are graduallyevolving from”apathetic independent voters”,with lower politicalknowledge and lower political involvement,to”ideal independentvoters”,with higher political knowledge and higher political involvement.Looking to the future,we can predict that the percentage of independentvoters will likely decline.With the continuing development ofdemocracy and the increasing maturity and stability of party politics,weexpect that the percentage of party indentifiers will grow.However,thisdoes not necessarily mean that the percentage of independent voters willdecline dramatically.Because of the expectation that independent votersare the ideal citizens,we believe that there are still a certain percentage ofpeople who will consider themselves as independent voters.Hence,independentvoters increasingly will not be”apathetic independent voters”who know nothing about politics.On the contrary,they will become”ideal citizens”who keep highly concerned about politics and make politicaldecisions according to their own subjective attitudes.

並列關鍵字

Election Prediction ； Uncertainty ； Logistic Regression ； Voting Behavior ； No Response Voter

參考文獻

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