多席次選舉中政黨的分合：以臺灣區域立委選舉為例

Party Splitting and Cooperation Under SNTV: A Study of Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan

徐永明(Yung-Ming Hsu) ； 陳鴻章(Houng-Chang Chen)

《選舉研究》 11卷1期 (2004/05) Pp. 127-169

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2004.11.01.127-169

摘要

本研究主要目的在探討選民針對經濟情況的評估是否會影響到投票抉擇呢？也就是在台灣選舉中，隨著經濟環境的惡化，選民是否具備經濟投票的行爲呢？當選民認爲經濟不好時，是否會用選票來懲罰執政黨？透過以下幾方面，本文將探討經濟情況的評估與投票抉擇的關係、歸因理論、經濟投票異質性。研究發現爲在2001年的立委選舉調查資料中，選民針對個人與國家經濟情況的評估，不論是回顧或前瞻的經濟評估，皆與投票抉擇之間存有顯著的差異。然而在投票模型中，個人與國家的經濟評估並不是主要影響投票抉擇的因素。在台灣選民的投票考量上，政黨認同、統獨立場仍是主要影響選民投票決定的主要變數。因此利用歸因理論與樣本篩選，本文發現一群具有經濟投票特質的選民，而他們的投票抉擇則是受到針對國家經濟情況所做的評估影響。不過，在經濟投票異質性的檢驗上，政治信任感與選民針對國家經濟情況之評估，兩者間並不存有交互作用。換言之，經濟評估對投票抉擇的影響並不受政治信任感的影響。由以上的討論，可以得知台灣選民經濟投票行爲存有異質性，但是是何種變數影響所致，仍有待後續研究探討之。

關鍵字

國民黨 ； 民進黨 ； 親民黨 ； 政黨合作與分裂 ； 反事實的模擬

並列摘要

The purpose of this article is to discuss whether the evaluation of economiccondition in electorate influences the voting choice.The election inTaiwan,with the bad economic condition,do the economic voting exist?When the electorate evaluate that the economic performance is bad,willthey punish the ruling party by their votes?We will discuss the relationbetween the evaluation of economic conditions and voting choices,attributivetheory and the heterogeneity of economic voting.From the discoveryof this article,there is obvious difference between personal and nationalevaluation of economic conditions and voting choices.In the multinomialvoting model,the economic evaluation that affects the votingchoices is not the main factor.Therefore,by using attributive theory andsample choosing,I find some electorate who has the economic votingcharacter.But in the testing of the heterogeneity of economic voting,politicaltrust and the national economic evaluation don't exist the interaction.The effect of economic evaluation to the voting decision doesn't beaffected by political trust.We can know that there is heterogeneity in theeconomic voting of Taiwan electorate.However,what kind of variablecauses the effect is the main continuous issue.

並列關鍵字

KMT ； DPP ； PFP ； Party Cooperation ； Counter-Factual Simulation

參考文獻

Cheng, Tun-jen,Yung-ming Hsu,Chienmm Chao,Bruce Dickson. (ed.)(2002).The Legacy of Lee Tung-hui.

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