媒體、民調和議題—談競選過程中民意的變動性和穩定性

Media, Opinion Polls and Issues - A Study of the Changes and Stability of Public Opinion during Campaign

盛治仁(Emile C. J. Sheng)

《選舉研究》 11卷1期 (2004/05) Pp. 73-98

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2004.11.01.73-98

摘要

本研究探討政治學者與媒體記者在觀察預測選舉時的落差，並檢證媒體報導選戰時的基模(schema)與民眾所關心的焦點有無落差。一般而言，政治學者可以在選前數月用政黨認同、統獨立場、省籍、性別及年齡等基本變項來解釋或預測選民的投票行為，並且有基本的穩定性和準確性(Lewis-Beck and Rice,1992;Rosenstone,1983)。但是從媒體的報導角度來看，民意支持度的變化卻是隨著選戰策略及競選新聞事件而起伏，似乎民意是浮動且極難預測的。因此本文首先試圖從民意調查資料的模式中對上述現象提供一個可能的解釋。其次，作者想要檢驗在競選過程當中，媒體報導選戰的角度為何，及其與選民所關心的議題之間的落差。結果顯示，媒體自有一番新聞運作邏輯，其報導選舉新聞的焦點和民眾所關心的議題之間有一定的差距。

關鍵字

選舉預測 ； 媒體報導 ； 民意調查 ； 投票行為 ； 內文分析 ； 競賽基模 ； 治理基模

並列摘要

This Study discusses the differences between journalists and political scientists while observing and predicting elections, and examines whether there are discrepancies between the media's schema and the public's interest during campaign. Overall speaking, political scientists are able to predict or explain voting behavior months before the election, using demographic variables such as partisanship, unification/independence stance, ethnic identity, gender, and age with considerable stability and accuracy (Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992; Rosenstone, 1983). However, from the perspective of media report, candidates' support ratings rise and fall along with campaign strategies and news events, public opinion seems to be variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, this article would like to first provide a plausible explanation to the above dilemma. Subsequently, the author would like to examine the media focus during campaign to see if their coverage reflects the issues people deem important. Empirical data shows that the media operates on its own logic, and there is a considerable gap between media campaign coverage and the issues people care most about.

並列關鍵字

election prediction ； media report ； opinion polls ； voting behavior ； content analysis ； game schema ； governing schema

參考文獻

Fiske, S. T.,Taylor, S. E(1984).Social Cognition.New York:Random House.

Fiske, Susan T.,Patricia Linville(1980).What Does the Schema Concept Buy Us?.Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.6,543-551.

Gelman Andrew,Gary King(1993).Why are Presidential Election Polls So Variable?.British Journal of Political Science.23,409-451.

Gilbert, E.S.(1968).On Discrimination Using Qualitative Variables.New York:John Wiley and Sons.

Lewis-Beck, Michael,Tom W. Rice(1992).Forecasting Elections.Washington, DC.:Congressional Quarterly Press.