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北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定

Candidate Evaluation and Voting Decision: The Case of Taipei Mayoral Election, 1994

摘要


民國八十三年年底舉行之第一屆省市長選舉,是台灣實施地方自治以來層級最高的地方行政首長選舉,更是牽動隔年第三屆立委選舉與八十六年總統選舉的重要指標,其歷史重要性不言而喻。雖由選民的人口結構與以往的投票記錄來看,台北市被視為在野黨最有可能執政的區域,但依往年投票記錄看來,在野黨從未贏得相對多數的政黨支持,因此本次選舉在野黨籍候選人的獲勝,甚難歸諸於政黨支持的增加。另一方面,兩位在野黨的市長候選人均為高知名度立法委員,挑戰首次接受民意洗禮的現任市長,更加升高選戰激烈程度,成為媒體報導關注的重心。本文假設決定此次市長選舉勝負之主因並非選民政黨認同轉移或增加,而是候選人因素影響的結果。本文認為,選民在此次市長選舉中並未大幅改變其政黨認同,但三位候選人評價之差異超越政黨認同,成為影響本次選舉之最重要因素。本文採用台大政治體系與變遷研究小組於一九九五年寒假所進行的實證研究資料,分析選民對候選人特質的認知程度、給予各候選人的相對評價、影響候選人評價的因素以及其與投票決定的關係。結果發現有八成以上的選民,可以認知到三位候選人之特質並給予評價,且候選人評價超越政黨認同,成為決定本次市長選舉最重要的決定因素。除此之外,選民對候選人特質評比能力愈高,候選人評價對投票決定的解釋力也愈高,顯示選民心目中候選人評價圖象愈清晰,對投票決定的影響亦愈大。

並列摘要


This paper tries to uncover the most significant factor determining the outcome of the Taipei Mayoral Election in 1994. The previous research has discovered that the voting decision of the electorate in Taiwan was to a large extent determined by party affiliation. In addition, the ruling KMT has gained a lions share of partisanship among the electorate. This situation did not change much in the election of 1994. This paper tries to answer how the DPPs candidate was able to win the election under this circumstance from the perspective of candidate factor. The candidate factor in elections has seldom been tackled during previous research. The argument of this paper is that candidate factor, particularly the evaluation of candidates, has surpassed the influence of party affiliation. It was the most decisive factor in voting decision among the Taipei electorate in 1994 mayoral election. It was discovered that although the balance of party attachment of Taipei electorate remained unchanged, the super evaluation on the DPPs candidate among a large proportion of the electorate helped the latter win the election.

參考文獻


Asher, Herbert B.(1992).Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voter, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952.California:Brooks/ Cole Publishing Company.
Campbell, Angus, Gurin, Gerald, Miller, Warren E.(1954).The Voter Decide.London:William Clowes and Sons.
Converse, P. E.(1966).Elections and the Political Order.NY:John Wiley & Sons Inc..
Dalton, Russell J., Wattenberg, Martin P.(1993).Political Science: The State of the Discipline II.Washington:American Political Science Association.
Lau, Richard R.(1986).Political Cognition.

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