1999年歐洲議會選舉之經驗觀察與理論意涵

本文以1999年歐洲議會選舉（簡稱歐選）之實證資料檢證相關的選舉理論。過去歐洲議會選舉通常被視為次級選舉。1999年歐選大致符合次級選舉之總體特徵，即低投票率、執政黨普遍挫敗及小黨有所斬獲，和歐選在大選週期所在位置會影響執政黨得票多寡等三大指標。然而「歐洲民壓」資料卻無法證實次級選舉之個體假設，即選民因認知歐選較不重要，故不去投票。實際上選民資訊不足，也不了瞭歐洲議會與各國國會之權力孰輕孰重，因此無法判斷歐選之重要性為何。倒是1999年歐選卻傳出各國政黨動員不力和媒體曝光不足的事證，因而指向次級選舉理論的「政黨動員」之個體假設。此外1999年歐選乃歐盟會員國首次統一採取某種型態的比例代表制。其中英國一改單一選區制，採用「封閉式區域比例代表制」。從英國的資料，筆者發現選區大小的確影響政黨得票分布。如Rae所預料，選區越大，則小黨獲得席次越多。但是選區若有強大的地域性政黨，則Rae的假設不成立。不過工黨在1999年歐選的全面潰敗卻不能完全歸咎於選舉制度的改變。筆者發現區域比例代表制雖不再給予工黨「席次紅利」，但至少保住其戰果。最後，筆者亦以證據駁斥坊間盛傳的歐元走勢與歐選結果之關聯性。

關鍵字

次級選舉理論；歐洲議會；歐洲政黨黨團；選舉週期；封閉名單式區域比例代表制

並列摘要

In this paper, the 1999 European (Parliament) election has been used to test relevant theories on elections. European elections have been regarded as second-order elections for decades. The 1999 European election is no exception, because it fulfills three defined characteristics of second-order election at the macro level. These Characteristics are (1) lower turnouts than those of general elections, (2) massive defeat of incumbent parties and relative success of minor parties, and (3) the impact of national electoral cycle on the result of European election. However, at the micro level, data drawn from “Eurobarometers” do not confirm the micro-level hypothesis of second-order election thesis. Without adequate information, individual voters do not know whether the power of European Parliament is greater or smaller than that of their national parliament. Therefore, voters have no bases to make any subjective judgement with regard to whether European election is more or less important than national election. On the contrary, it is politicians, media, and parties, who know better the stake of European election that, make no effort to mobilize voters to vote. As a result, turnout rates are generally lower. Some evidence in the 1999 European election has pointed to this “party mobilization hypothesis.” In addition to verifying second-order election thesis, the author shows that constituency magnitude does affect election result. The 1999 European election in the UK confirms Rae’s hypothesis, namely, the larger the constituency magnitude, the more minor-party candidates elected in the constituency. However Labor’s massive defeat in the 1999 European election cannot entirely be attributed to the new electoral system. On the contrary, Labour may lose more seats had it not for the new regional PR list system. Finally, the author provides evidence to reject any correlation between the value of Euro and the outcome of the 1999 European election.

並列關鍵字

Second-order election thesis ； European Parliament ； European Party Groups ； electoral cycle ； regional closed-list PR.

參考文獻

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1999年歐洲議會選舉之經驗觀察與理論意涵

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