中共菁英政治與質性分析：原始資料來源與分析方法

Chinese Elite Politics and Qualitative Analyses: Primary Data Sources and Analytical Methods

寇健文(Chien-Wen Kou)

《台灣政治學刊》 9卷2期 (2005/12) Pp. 233-278

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200512.9(2).233-278

摘要

在訊息極為有限的情況下，外界如何研究中共高層互動？本文一方面闡述研究中共菁英政治的主要原始資料來源，另一方面說明進行資料分析的步驟。本文認為在枯燥無味的中共官方媒體報導中，隱藏許寶貴的相關線索。在眾多的原始資料來源中，官方文件、領導人活動報導、照片是資料的主要來源。官方檔案、訪談、回憶錄是次要的資料來源。
進行資料分析時，研究者可以運用內容分析法，找出領導人發言中的關鍵詞或是關鍵立場，同時應該建立中共菁英政治演變的整體性解釋。兩者相互對照，映證兩者結果之間的一致性。不過，這種研究方法仍必須受制於資料不完整的先天性侷限，不能過度誇大所得到的結論。

關鍵字

中共 ； 菁英政治 ； 資料蒐集 ； 資料分析

並列摘要

How does one explore and explain the interactions of Chinese top elites at a crucial juncture, such as the fourth plenum of the 16(superscript th) CCP Central Committee in September 2004, with limited information? The purpose of this paper is to show the primary sources of information regarding the interactions of Chinese top leaders, and to illustrate the process of deconstructing and reconstructing available information. This paper claims that researchers can dig out valuable information from dry news reports in official Chinese mass media. Official documents, top leaders' open speeches, and even photos indirectly reveal Chinese leaders' attitude in policy debates and their power relationships.
Once available information is collected, researchers may adopt content analysis to filter out Chinese leaders' position on several specific crucial issues. The results will demonstrate whether the leaders have formed a stable alignment. Additionally, researchers should develop their interpretation of history on Chinese elite politics of past decades. Once researchers identify the evolutional track of Chinese elite politics and its dynamics, they can better illustrate the implications of the leaders' behavior in a specific conjuncture. However, due to the fact that available information is always limited, researchers must not exaggerate the

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