過去在解釋投票參與時,經常將投不投票視為利益的取捨以及責任的驅使,亦即假設選民參與投票是為了極大化其利益。而在2004年舉行的全國性公民投票,雖然是直接民主的實踐,卻籠罩在強烈的政黨之爭下,使得領不領公民票成為選舉的焦點之一。針對影響公民投票領票的因素,有必要從心理層面的角度加以探討。 由於過去對於公民投票參與的經驗研究並不多見,而以往的文獻發現,台灣民眾的政黨認同、國家認同與民主價值之間的相互作用甚深。因此,我們嘗試透過路徑分析模型分析民眾對公民投票此一程序的認知、民主價值、政治功效感、政治信任感、政黨認同、統獨立場等因素對於公民投票行為的影響。我們初步的發現是,對於公民投票本身的評估具有相當明顯的影響,但是民主價值對於公民投票的影響力並不如預期明顯。認為自己可以影響政治的政治效能感以及對於政治體系的信任感亦不具有顯著影響,而政黨認同及統獨立場對於以上的態度及投票均具有高度的影響力。雖然公民投票本身的評估具有影響,但是此次的公民投票仍然具有相當的政黨色彩,因此民主深化並未完全實現。
Previous studies on voting participation used to model individuals' utilities and duties as the forces driving their participation. It is assumed that people maximize their utilities when they turn out. In the 2004 referendum, there were many controversies as to how to exercise direct democracy as well as fierce partisan battles. It is thus necessary to analyze the determinants of voting in the referendum from the perspective of social psychology. There are few empirical studies on the 2004 referendum. Because data on party identification, a person's position on the unification/independence issue, and democratic values were collected from among the general public, we used a path analysis model to isolate the factors influencing participation in the referendum. Our preliminary findings were that the evaluation of the referendum was influential, and that the democratic beliefs were not as effective as expected. Neither were the political efficacy or political trust as effective as expected. By contrast, party identification and a person's position on the unification/independence issue were found to have a great impact on turnout in the referendum. The empirical evidence indicates that the referendum was marred by political controversies, and thus the ideal of direct democracy was not achieved.