第四波民主化的背景與意義

Development of the Fourth Wave of Democratization

巨克毅(Ker-Yi Chu)

《宗教哲學》 73期 (2015/09) Pp. 161-169

https://doi.org/10.6309/JORP.2015.09.73.161

摘要

2011年元月中旬開始，阿拉伯世界爆發一連串爭取自由民主的運動，從北非的突尼西亞、阿爾及尼亞、埃及、利比亞、到中東地區的約旦、敘利亞、沙烏地阿拉伯、葉門、安曼、海灣地區的巴林、卡達、阿聯酋長國等國家，皆發生不同程度的民主抗爭運動，迄今引發的「多米諾骨牌」效應仍然持續方興未艾。這一波民主政治運動被稱為「阿拉伯之春」，導致此一地區的政治情勢大幅震盪。研究全球民主政治的學者戴蒙（Larry Diamond）即曾指出：未來阿拉伯世界反對專制獨裁的民主運動興起，乃是全球「第四波民主化浪潮」的開啟。由於第三波民主化浪潮在上世紀70年代葡萄牙、西班牙的政治變革展開、80年代東亞地區與拉丁美洲的民主轉型、90年代初期「蘇東波」共產革命的蛻變，直到20世紀末，非洲南部地區的民主化運動，逐漸發展已至尾聲。但是當前中東地區與北非穆斯林世界的反專制獨裁的民主抗爭運動正如火如荼的發展，不啻說明這一波爭取民主革命的運動正代表「第四波民主化浪潮」的興起。以下、將針對阿拉伯民主化運動的發展背景與原因，以及此波民主化的發展趨勢，提出一些粗淺看法與預測。

關鍵字

民主化 ； 伊斯蘭民主 ； 「協商制」（舒拉）

並列摘要

Starting from the middle of January in 2011, a chain of movements striving for liberty and democracy broke out in the Arabian world, different degrees of movements fighting for democracy burst out in countries including Tunisia of north Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, countries in the mid east area such as Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Amman, countries around the Gulf area such as Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates...etc, the domino effect is still going on. The fourth movement of democracy is called the Arab spring, causing great political concussions of these areas. Larry Diamond, a scholar studying world democracy, indicated that the uprising of democratic movements against dictatorship in the future Arab world will be the opening of the ＂fourth wave of democratization＂ of the world. The third wave of democracy was launched in the 70's of the previous century after the political transformation in Spain and Portugal, what followed was the democratic transformation in east Asia areas and Latin America in the 80's, the transformation of communist revolution in Russia, Eastern Europe, Poland in the early 90's. It came to an end in the late 20's century after the democratic movements in the South Africa. Now that democratic movements are developing vigorously against the dictatorship of the Muslim world of North Africa and in the mid east area, it goes without saying that the democratic movements represent the rise of the fourth democratic wave. The following article will provide brief opinions and predictions on the growing trend of the current democratic transformation and the developing backgrounds and factors to the Arabian democratic movements.

並列關鍵字

Democratization ； Islamic Democracy ； Negotiation Mechanism (Shura)