氣溫變化和心血管及呼吸道疾病死亡的相關

Association between Temperature Change and Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease and Respiratory Disease in Taiwan

黃鈴雅(Ling-Ya Huang) ； 王玉純(Yu-Chun Wang) ； 柳中明(Chung-Ming Liu) ； 王根樹(Gen-Shuh Wang) ； 宋鴻樟(Fung-Chang Sung)

《台灣醫學》 16卷5期 (2012/09) Pp. 471-478

https://doi.org/10.6320/FJM.2012.16(5).03

摘要

氣候條件是與健康，包括心血管疾病、呼吸道疾病和傳染病相關的重要因子。我們使用衛生署的死因資料來估計台灣地區心血管疾病和呼吸道疾病與氣溫的相關。我們也預測2040-2050和2090-2100年間台灣65歲以上族群與氣溫相關的心肺疾病額外死亡數。結果顯示日均溫20-24℃時，男性和女性之心血管疾病每日死亡數最低，分別為1.40人/縣-天和1.12人/縣-天；日均溫＜15°C時的日死亡數分別增加為1.82和1.35人/縣-天。呼吸道疾病死亡數於日均溫20-24°C時也最低，男女性分別為0.68人/縣-天和0.33人/縣-天；日均溫＜15°C時的日死亡數增加為0.89和0.42人/縣-天。死亡人數隨年紀增加。多變項波瓦松迴歸分析的結果顯示，相較於日均溫20-24℃，日均溫＜15℃時的心血管疾病之日相對死亡危險增加為1.08（95％CI 1.06-1.11）；呼吸道疾病之日相對死亡危險則是1.03（95％CI 1.003-1.07）。死亡危險和空氣污染的相關較弱。台灣在數十年後將會有較多的高溫天數，因低溫導致的死亡將會減少，然而，因為人口老化，與極端高溫相關的死亡將會增加。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 老年人口 ； 心血管和呼吸道健康 ； 死亡危險

並列摘要

Weather condition is an important factor associated with health, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD) and communicable diseases. We used data obtained from national vital statistics to estimate mortality from CVD and RD associated with temperature, sex, age, air pollution and GDP in Taiwan. We also predicted the excess deaths in 2040-2050 and 2090-2100 associated with the warming climate and the rising elderly population. Results showed that the overall daily deaths from CVD were the lowest of 1.40 persons/county-day for men and 1.12 persons/county-day for women when it ranged 20-24℃; the death number increased to 1.82 and 1.35, respectively, when it was＜15℃. The corresponding lowest deaths from RD were 0.68 vs. 0.33 persons/county-day for males and females, respectively, when it ranged 20-24℃; the corresponding deaths increased to 0.89 and 0.42, when it was＜15℃., respectively. The mortalily increased with age. Multivariable Poisson regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) increased to 1.08 (95% CI 1.06-1.11) for mortality from CVD when it ranged＜15℃ compared with that at 20-24℃. The corresponding RR for RD was 1.03 (95% CI 1.003-1.07). The risk associated with air pollution was weaker. Overall, the heat waves will increase in the future. Deaths from low temperatures may decrease, however, because of aging, mortality associated with extreme heat will increase.

並列關鍵字

cardiovascular disease ； climate change ； mortality ； respiratory disease ； the elderly