半導體製造之先進製程産能就緒時點的經濟模式

An Economic Model of Capacity Deployment Timing for Advanced Processes of Semiconductor Manufacturing

周雍強(Yon Chou) ； 黃俐瑀(Li-Yu Huang)

《科技管理學刊》 9卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 153-177

摘要

高科技産業的技術研發與産品需求有很高的不確定性，而先進製程産能的投資成本往往很高、製程技術更迭迅速、建廠的前置時間長，産能建置過早會造成設備閒置，建置太晚則會喪失商機，所以産能建置的就緒時點是高科技製造企業的重要決策。本文的主要目的是探討半導體先進製程産能的建置規劃方法，本文首先建構包含良率改善的隨機模型在內的系統動態模型，其次，依據系統動態關係，建立一個考慮設備閒置與商機損失的經濟分析模式，最後，經由優化運算求算建置産能的最佳時點。未來的高科技産業仍將會有很多的不確定性，本文提出的産能規劃理論與方法將有助於分析風險與制訂對策。

關鍵字

半導體製造 ； 先進製程産能 ； 産能建置時點決策 ； 良率改善的隨機模型

並列摘要

Technology development and product demand in high-tech industries are full of uncertainties. Since building a factory requires long lead-time and manufacturing capacity incurs high cost, capacity deployment timing is an important decision in the uncertain environment of technology development and volatile demand. The objective of this paper is to propose a decision method for capacity deployment timing for advanced process technology of semiconductor manufacturing. A dynamic system model based on a stochastic model of yield improvement is first presented. An economic analysis model that trades off over-capacity and under-capacity costs is then derived. Finally, a numerical example is given to show how to optimize capacity deployment timing by using this model.

並列關鍵字

Semiconductor Manufacturing ； Advanced Process Capacity ； Capacity Deployment Timing ； Yield Improvement Models

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