應用德菲法探討無線通訊產業之發展情境

無線通訊具備產業關聯強、附加價值優、技術層次高、能源依存小以及潛力大、污染低等特質，故對各國國力強盛與社經發展具有重要影響力。結合寬頻、即時(Immediacy)與行動(Mobility)的全球資訊應用(Global Information Access)之快速成長，更強化無線科技的關鍵地位。台灣無線通訊產業起步雖晚，但群策群力使發展成就斐然。隨著6C (computer, communication, consumer, content, control & care)及數位聚合的發展，更使無線通訊前景亮麗，如何帶動無線產業升級與價值創造，是我國科技發展的關鍵課題。本研究目的在掌握無線技術創新情境，透過闡述全球與台灣通訊市場發展趨勢，從社經需求、技術進程及市場前景三大構面，以專家取徑的德菲法預測2005、2010、2015年主力產品及重要應用。結果顯示短距無線通訊、多頻多模手機、關鍵組件SoC/SoMLC，及因應高齡化社會的的遠距居家照護、網路安全監控、新世代雙網整合的創新電信服務等，可協助廠商突破現有成長瓶頸，開創新局。

關鍵字

無線通訊；發展情境；德菲法； WPAN ； WLAN ； WWAN

並列摘要

The trend of Broadband, Immediacy and Mobility highlights the importance of the wireless communication techniques. Having great impact on the industrial development as well as social welfares, the wireless communication is becoming a strategic industry for many countries based on its critical traits such as good market potential, strong linkages to other industries, high added value, high technology level, low pollution, and low energy dependence. Taiwan started the wireless industry late, but has already had some great achievements in customer equipment including wireless LAN and mobile phones. With the fast development of 6C (computer, communication, consumer, content, control & care) and digital convergence, global wireless communication has been kept in a very promisingly growing pace. Taiwan could further upgrade its advantages by integrating its existing superiovity of info-corn products manufacturing. This research aims to grasp the technology innovation trends by the forecasting of short term (Year 2005), mid term (Year 2010) and long term (Year 2015). The paper elucidates the future scenarios of wireless communication industries, based on the three aspects, which are ”Socio-Economic Needs”, ”Technology Progress” and ”Market Prospect”. Delphi method is applied here to predict the business trends of major products such as short distance wireless communications products, multi-band multi-mode handsets as well as key components including SoC/SoMLC. In addition, applications such as remote home-based healthcare, networked security/surveillance and novel telecom services are expected to create significant growth opportunities. The outcomes of this research can be used as the references for the formulation of science and technology policy, industrial strategic planning and the investment feasibility study.

並列關鍵字

Wireless Communications ； Delphi Method ； WPAN ； WLAN WWAN

參考文獻

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