The Predication of 23 Million Persons on Taiwan and Fukien via GM Model

For years, 23 million persons have already become a familiar term among Taiwanese people. Even all-political figures are fond of mentioning ”the public opinions of 23 million persons” which causes the misunderstanding of the population of Taiwan has already reached 23 million persons. In fact, after the population of Taiwan and Fukien area reached 20 million persons in April, 1989, the population growth started to drop due to the slowly decline of birth rate. From 1989 to 1999, about one million persons every five years until 1999, the population were 22 million persons. Then, the population reached 23 million persons after nine years. We know that population policy is one of the essential policies of developed countries, the sum of population acts as a main reference for the government to conduct all kinds of policies. Additionally, the limitation of human being's living source will cause the impact of whole ecology balance, based on this phenomenon, this paper tended to set up a saturated analysis model of the population of Taiwan (including Kinmen and Matsu) by utilizing grey Verhulst and GM (1, 1) method. It built and predicts the population number and conducts a case analysis toward the saturation value of reaching 23 million persons on Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

23 million persons ； Population growth ； Grey Verhulst method ； GM 1, 1

國際替代計量

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