應用線性迴歸分析進行銷售預測於醫療器材產業－以T公司為例

Applying Regression Analysis in Industry of the Medical Device to Sales Project-Taking T-Corporation as Example

邱垂昱(Chui-Yu Chiu) ； 黃文佐(Wen-Tso Huang) ； 周世烱(Shih-Chiung Chou) ； 邱駿榮(Chun-Jung Chiu)

《臺北科技大學學報》 42卷2期 (2009/12) Pp. 107-120

https://doi.org/10.29768/JNTUT.200912.0007

摘要

T公司是具有嚴謹醫療器材管理制度的專業醫療器材研發與製造商，本研究之目的爲透過迴歸分析減少T公司在醫療器材管理上的生產數量與實際銷售數量之差距，利用最小平方法找出未來9個月的迴歸預測值，與業務預測值及年度平均售銷值三者相互比較，希望能找出一個更精準的銷售預測數字，使生產數量與實際銷售差距最小化。透過分析實務上T公司的三種機種ST-600，ST-660與ST-700的歷史銷售資料後發現，在95%信心水準下ST-660與ST-700的1~12個月份與銷售預測間的確有顯著關係，利用最小平方法所建立的迴歸模型較業務銷售預測值及年度平均銷售值其與實際銷售數量的差距最小。

關鍵字

迴歸分析 ； 銷售預測 ； 醫療器材管理

並列摘要

T-corporation is a professional medical device developer and manufacturer with strict and conscientious medical device management system, through the analysis of historical sales data in Industry of the Medical Device of T-corporation's three types of products, it is found that least square regression model possessed smallest error between predictive and actual sales.
Practice through the analysis of historical sales data in T-corporation's three types of ST-600, ST-660 and ST-700 and found, Under 95% confidence using method of least square regression model established predictive value than the business and the average annual sales value of the sale of its relationship with the gap between the actual sales of the smallest.

並列關鍵字

Regression Analysis ； Sales Forecast ； Medical Device Management