人民幣國際化之貿易與金融條件分析

本文根據貨幣國際化理論，分析人民幣國際化的貿易與金融條件。中國的貿易規模有利於人民幣國際化，但貿易結構因素對人民幣國際化不利。中國的金融條件嚴重制約人民幣的國際化，資本管制使人民幣的境外可得性與可用性受到限制，境外居民難以使用人民幣進行投資或籌資。基於相對的經濟實力與地緣關係，人民幣在東亞發揮國際貨幣功能，阻力比較小。人民幣能否超越東亞地區，在全球扮演國際貨幣的角色，取決於中國是否能大幅改變對外貿易結構，並且解除資本管制、實現人民幣利率與匯率市場化、提高金融發展程度。

關鍵字

國際貨幣；貨幣國際化；人民幣國際化；貨幣國際化的條件；資本管制

並列摘要

This paper investigates the prospect of the Renminbi becoming an international currency. The analysis is made based on the conditions imposed by China's foreign trade and financial sectors. The sheer size of China's foreign trade is advantageous to the internationalization of the Renminbi, but the structural factors of this sector are not. Under present circumstances, China's financial sector poses severe constraints on the internationalization of the Renminbi. In terms of openness, liquidity and breadth, China's financial sector has a long way to go before the Renminbi can attain international currency status. Due to strict capital controls and a low level of financial development in China, it is rather difficult for foreign residents to invest in China's financial market or use the Renminbi as a funding currency. As China has a dominant position in East Asia, the Renminbi may emerge as an international currency in this region. However, the use of the Renminbi as an international currency may not go very far beyond East Asia if China cannot improve the competiveness of its foreign trade sector, liberalize its capital and financial accounts, and develop its financial markets.