製造業產業發展對人口遷移的影響：台灣的實證分析

The Impacts of Manufacturing Industry Development on Migration: An Empirical Analysis in Taiwan

張慈佳(Tzu-Chia Chang) ； 凃保全(Pao-Chuan Tu)

《建築與規劃學報》 9卷1期 (2008/06) Pp. 21-35

https://doi.org/10.30054/JAP.200806.0002

摘要

本文的目的在於探討「技術密集製造業」與「傳統基礎製造業」，二者的「產業混合效果」與「競爭效果」對於地區間人口遷移的影響，期望藉此瞭解近年來各地方政府積極爭取設置科學園區的發展策略，是否能有效的吸引人口移入。本文以台灣地區1990至2003年間，各都會區與非都會區的相關資料爲基礎，經由移轉份額分析，與時間序列橫斷面模式估計之後發現，對人口持續外流的地區而言，若能以當地具有競爭優勢的傳統基礎製造業爲發展主軸，則長期上將有助於人口移入。另一方面，人口集中地區則比較適合發展技術密集製造業，因爲此類就業機會的增加，無論是基於地區比較利益，還是產業組合的效益而來的，均對於人口移入沒有顯著的影響。如此一來，除了可避免都市發展產生擁擠、污染等負外部效果之外，亦可使當地原有居民分享產業成長的利益。

關鍵字

人口遷移 ； 移轉份額分析 ； 技術密集製造業 ； 傳統基礎製造業

並列摘要

This paper examines the impacts of the manufacturing industry development of region on interregional migration, and tries to understand the effects of the establishment of Technical Park on regional development. Based on the shift-share analysis, we use the metropolitan related data from 1990 to 2003 in Taiwan to calculate manufacturing industry mix effects and competitive effects of regions. According to the empirical results of time series and cross section model, the major findings in this study are summarized as follows. First, the competitive effects of traditional and infrastructure manufacturing industries would attract people to move into the regions. So they could bring migrants into the outflow areas. Second, local governments of the inflow areas should make efforts to develop fast-growing technical-intensive manufacturing industries, or those industries which have the regional competitive advantages relative to the other regions. Since the policy would not enhance immigration, it would avoid some negative externalities such as crowd, pollution etc. Besides, it could let residents share the benefits caused by the policy more effectively.

並列關鍵字

Migration ； shift-share analysis ； technical-intensive manufacturing industries ； traditional and infrastructure manufacturing industries

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