氣候變遷下都市防災空間規劃程序調整之研究

On the Adjustment of Spatial Planning Procedure of Urban Disaster Prevention under Climate Change

詹士樑(Shih-Liang Chan) ； 黃書禮(Shu-Li Huang) ； 蕭婷允(Ting-Yun Hsiao)

《建築與規劃學報》 10卷3期 (2009/12) Pp. 183-200

https://doi.org/10.30054/JAP.200912.0002

摘要

根據IPCC第四次報告指出，氣候變遷是未來全球氣候的趨勢，所引致的增溫、降雨改變、極端氣候等異常的氣候現象，將產生與以往不同的災害類型及災害強度的增加，擴大災害的風險與損失，因此因應氣候變遷的防救災計畫就顯得更爲重要。由於人口與活動的聚集，自然災害尤其會對人口密集的都市造成巨大的風險與損失，都市防災規劃的工作將更形重要。國內有關都市防災規劃的程序，主要以內政部建築研究所近年持續推動的都市防災空間規劃爲基礎，唯尚未納入氣候變遷之考量，本文透過用聯合分析法(Conjoint Analysis)，擬定11個調整之替選方案，並透過專家問卷之結果，選取其中效用值最高之方案五，配合目前都市防災空間系統規劃體制，建議較需配合氣候變遷衝擊作調整的部分，以強化都市防救災體制的因應能力。

關鍵字

都市防災空間系統 ； 氣候變遷 ； 聯合分析法

並列摘要

IPCC AR4 indicates that the trend of climate change will be more likely and significant. The phenomenon and direction of trend include heavy precipitation events, intensive tropical cyclones, extreme incidences, etc. which could increase the risk and damage. The urban areas are more sensitive to these impacts because of the dense of population and activities. Therefore, the issue of disaster planning of urban area is becoming more important. According to the process proposed by ABRI, the factor of climate change has not integrated. The paper applies conjoint analysis to evaluate the effective adjustment for the urban disaster planning process. With the suggestion of process adjustment, a case plan of Ku-Shan is applied to illustrate the details of practical work.

並列關鍵字

Urban disaster prevention plan ； Climate change ； Conjoint analysis

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