管制資本流入對經濟成長的影響—動態GMM追蹤資料模型之研究

The Influence of Capital Inflow Controls on Economic Growth-Dynamic Panel GMM Analysis

王富美(Fuh-Mei Wang) ； 蔡群立(Chun-Li Tsai) ； 黃惠君(Hui-Chun Huang)

《台灣金融財務季刊》 12卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 71-114

https://doi.org/10.6985/TBFQ.201112.0071

摘要

本研究採用景氣循環來源的方法及動態二階段GMM Robust追蹤資料模型，與1996年新版AREAER中將資本管制區分為13細項的定義方式，探討1995年到2006年125個樣本國家資本管制類型，及其與經濟成長率及成長率波動之關係。分析已開發、開發中與低度開發國家是否應採取不同的資本管制措施，以利國家之經濟成長。實證結果發現，已開發國家因基礎建設完善與金融體系健全，取消資本管制將有利於實質資本的分配利用，與金融資金的有效投入實質經濟生產，促使成長率提昇。相對而言，國家發展程度較低的國家因金融環境投機性風險高，對於實質資本或金融資本都應適時採取一定的管制措施。甚且，國家發展程度愈低，資本管制愈顯著地擴大經濟成長率之波動。

關鍵字

資本流入管制 ； 動態GMM two step Robust追蹤資料 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

Based on the endogenous growth theory, this paper uses dynamic panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) to examine the influences of physical and financial capital controls on economic growth and growth volatilities for 125 countries over the period from 1995 to 2006. We follow AREAER (1996) to distinguish capital controls into 13 different detailed controls. We also categorize countries into developed, developing and less developed ones to test how controls on portfolio and physical capital inflows affect economic growth and growth volatilities.Since both infrastructure and financial system are good in developed countries, removing capital controls benefits the distribution of physical capital and the investment of financial capital. Our empirical results indicate that removing capital controls is positively related with economic growth. In less developed countries, the speculative risks in the financial environment are higher; we therefore suggest that physical and financial capital controls are necessary. We also find that physical and financial capital controls significantly increase the economic growth volatility in less developed countries.

並列關鍵字

Capital Inflow Controls ； Dynamic Panel GMM ； Economic Growth

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