以電腦模擬輔助企業成長策略之建構－探索性個案研究

成長是企業重要而基本的策略。然而，企業經常面臨的障礙是缺乏能力把片斷的構想、目標與行動，轉化成為一個整體的成長邏輯。主要原因是成長涉及了動態性複雜(dynamic complexity)的問題，導致管理者難以確立行動與成長之間的因果關係。本研究發展了一個以電腦模擬為基礎的方法，輔助管理者克服成長所涉及的動態性複雜問題，並建構整體的成長邏輯。這個方法結合行動反思(reflection-in-action)與系統動力學(system dynamics)理論，透過對成長問題的探詢(inquiry)、反思(reflection)、電腦化模型表達、模擬與實驗的反覆循環過程，幫助管理者發展對成長情境的理解與行動設計。研究透過個案公司的成長策略發展過程，觀察與檢驗該方法介入所產生的影響，以及如何幫助管理團隊克服成長的動態性複雜，建構理想的企業成長系統。最後討論個案的觀察與經驗，在實務與理論上的意涵。

關鍵字

成長策略；成長系統；行動反思；系統動力學

並列摘要

Present firm growth literatures, with notable few exceptions, tend to be static explanations and qualitative suggestions of the growth dynamics. Without objective knowledge and information of causal ambiguity, firm strategy formulation can be rather difficult. In consideration of complex feedbacks and time delay misperceptions that often cause ineffective or counterproductive actions, this paper proposes a simulation-based framework to facilitate managers to organize and construct growth logic and strategy in pursuit of firm growth. Based on the concept of reflection-in-action that is essential for common practitioner's learning, the proposed framework suggests an iterative organizational inquiry and reflection process with the support of an evolving simulation model. Following the Action Science paradigm, a longitudinal study was conducted at a participating firm, MeiK Co., to illustrate how the proposed iterative simulation-based framework successfully supported the firm in developing its growth model and strategies. The process by which the firm case enhanced its understanding of the confronted growth problem and formulated its growth strategy are detailed and discussed.