企業財務危機預警模式之研究－以財務及非財務因素構建

A Study of Company Financial Distress Warning Model-Constructing with Financial and Non-financial Factors

黃振豊(Cheng-Li Huang) ； 呂紹強(Shao-Chiang Lu)

《當代會計》 1卷1期 (2000/11) Pp. 27-65

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2000.1.1.02

摘要

以往的財務危機預警模式都是用財務變數來構建，但是只用財務變數所建立的預警模式似乎無法預測出近年的財務危機事件，因此本研究除了考慮財務變數之外，另外採用其他研究中對公司績效具有影響之非財務變數來構建預警模式，並利用非財務因素與財務因素資訊取得之時效上差異來構建「兩階段財務危機預警模式」，以改善目前通行之財務危機預警制度。實證結果顯示：1、以非財務因素所構建之危機預警模式具有較早期的預測能力，但在越接近危機發生年度時，則以財務因素所構建之預警模式具有較高的預測能力。2、以變數選擇分析法所構建的財務危機預警模式較因數分析法具有較早且較佳的預測能力。3、整體而言，兩階段財務危機預警模式（非財務變數為第一階段模式，財務變數為第二階段模式）不僅較其他單階段模式具有較穩定且較佳之危機預測能力，亦可以有效地降低型一誤差。

關鍵字

財務危機 ； 預警模式 ； 非財務因素 ； 兩階段財務危機預警模式

並列摘要

Previous studies always use financial ratios to construct financial distress warning models. In recent years, these models constructed only with financial ratios couldn't predict financial distress. This study constructed financial distress warning model not only with financial factors but also with non-financial factors, which could affect performance of companies. We can get the information of non-financial factors earlier than the information of financial factors, so this study create ”two-steps” financial distress warning model to improve the weaknesses of traditional financial distress warning models.The major findings of the study including:1. Using non-financial factors to construct financial distress warning model can predict financial distress earlier than using financial factors.2. Using variable selection analysis to construct financial distress warning model can predict financial distress earlier than using factor analysis.3. ”Two-steps” financial distress warning model, non-financial model firstly and the financial model secondly, not only has better stability and the ability of prediction but also can lower type I error.

並列關鍵字

financial distress ； warning model ； non-financial factor ； two-steps financial distress warning model