損益表之分類與獲利能力之預測

Income Statement Classification and Earnings Predictability

張仲岳(Conrad C. Chang)

《當代會計》 2卷1期 (2001/05) Pp. 1-17

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2001.2.1.01

摘要

一般而言，多站式損益表將公司本期純益劃分為三類：營業利益、營業外淨收入及非常損益等三個盈餘組成因素（earnings components）。這三種利益的持續性（persistence），有相當大的差異。所謂持續性，係指該因素及其金額，在可預見的未來，會再度反覆發生的機率。機率愈高，該因素的持續性也愈高。一般而言，營業利益的持續性最高，其次為營業外淨收入，而非常損益的持續性最低。因此，損益表之分類方式，實可輔助投資人預測公司未來之盈餘。由於我國許多上市公司均有許多重要的轉投資事業，尤其是依權益法認列的轉投資公司。若該轉投資公司獲利良好，投資公司亦可逐年按持股比例，認列投資收入。鑑於以往國內外之會計研究，均未詳加探討各盈餘組成項目之不同的持續性，尤其是投資淨收入的持續性，對於獲利預測能力之提昇，因此本研究深入探討此一課題。本研究發現：1. 在考慮個別盈餘組成因素之持續性之後，獲利解釋能力會比未考慮個別盈餘組成因素時較高。2. 在考慮個別盈餘組成因素之持續性之後，獲利預測能力會比未考慮個別盈餘組成因素時較高。3. 在單獨考慮投資淨收入之後，獲利預測能力會比未單獨考慮投資淨收入時較高。此乃因為投資淨收入的持續性相當高之緣故，故應單獨加以考慮。

關鍵字

損益表 ； 分類 ； 盈餘預測

並列摘要

In general, multiple-step income statement classifies current earnings into three earnings components: operating income, non-operating income and extraordinary income. The extents of earnings persistence for these earnings components are not the same. Earnings persistence means the extent of an earnings component that can persist into future periods. Operating income usually enjoys higher earnings persistence than non-operating income. Non-operating income has higher earnings persistence than extraordinary income. Thus, the classification of income statement can help investor to predict future earnings.Since many firms on the Taiwan Stock Exchange own many important investee companies, especially those that are qualified to use equity method to account for investment income. If the investee companies perform well, the investing companies can recognize significant amounts of investment income every year. Since the prior accounting research has not examined whether investors can improve their earnings forecasts by using the persistence level of each earnings component, especially the investment income, this study finds the following empirical results:1. By utilizing the persistence level of each earnings component, investors can improve their ability to explain current earnings.2. By utilizing the persistence level of each earnings component, investors can improve their ability to forecast future earnings.3. After considering the impacts of investment income on future earnings, investors can improve their earnings forecasts.

並列關鍵字

Income statement ； Classification ； Earnings forecast