私立大學院校預警模型之實證研究

An Empirical Study of Private Colleges and Universities' Warning Model

林江亮(Chiang-Liang Lin) ； 王靜宜(Jing-Yi Wang)

《當代會計》 6卷2期 (2005/11) Pp. 221-245

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2005.6.2.04

摘要

由於過去在營利事業之財務危機研究中指出以傳統財務性指標建立財務危機預警模型，可以獲得良好之危機預警模型。本研究將這樣之研究結果用在屬於非營利性質之學校上，觀察學校之財務性指標是否也如營利事業研究結果一樣對於危機預警模型具有區別能力。本研究是以1999年至2001年間，曾遭教育部接管或是凍結補助款之私立大學院校為問題學校，參酌學校規模、組織型態、及系所類別等條件後，以配對方式選取出正常學校。研究結果顯示，在接管當年以及前一年問題學校之行政管理支出佔總收入之比率顯著高於正常學校，且機械儀器設備佔固定資產之比率以及圖書及博物佔固定資產之比率均顯著低於正常學校。本文採用因素分析法來建立預警模式，發現發生問題當年度與其前一年度中，模式之正確區別率分別為85%與82.5%，足以了解即使是屬於非營利性質之學校用財務變數所建立出之預警模型仍具有區別能力。

關鍵字

私立大學院校 ； 財務預警模型 ； 財務比率

並列摘要

According to previous studies on financial distress of profit business pointed out, financial ratios made the construction of financial distress model could obtain excellent financial distress predicting model. This study will observe college and universities' financial ratios made the construction of warning model can get the same result as profit business. Private colleges and universities that have been temporarily removed their management right by the Department of Education or have not been distributed any budget from the Government during 1999 and 2001 are identified as 'abnormal school' and using a 1 : 3 matched design to choose the normal school in the term of the scale of them, the style of them and what segment it is.The empirical result shows that the ratio of administration expense division total revenue is very different between normal and abnormal school. And the ratios of equipments division fixed assets and the library's assets division fixed assets in the normal schools are obviously higher than abnormal schools. After using factor analysis method, the predict ability is very good. In the conclusion, financial ratios made the construction of warning model could obtain excellent distress predicting model even in non-profit business.

並列關鍵字

Private University and College ； Distress Prediction Model ； Financial Ratios

參考文獻

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