臺灣地區空屋現象與原因分析

An Analysis of Housing Vacancy Rate Phenomenon and Reasons in Taiwan

彭建文(Cheng-Wen Peng) ； 張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

《住宅學報》 3期 (1995/01) Pp. 45-71

https://doi.org/10.6375/JHS.199501.0045

摘要

根據1980及1990年的住宅普查結果顯示，臺灣地區兩次普查區的空屋率均維持在13%以上，此結果與歐美國家一般正常3~5%的空屋水準比較，明顯偏高。兩次普查間及1990年普查後，各縣市的空屋率是否均維持此高水準？是什麼因素造成高空屋率？（是否隱含臺灣住宅投資的偏高資本利得預期與偏低的持有成本及租金等現象？）而臺灣近年來的偏高房價為何未因高空屋率而有明顯的下降？在目前空屋資訊缺乏的情況下，這些疑惑並無合理的解答。因此，本研究首先透過兩次住宅普查與臺灣電力公司表燈用電不足底度資料澄清臺灣地區各縣市空屋狀況。發現臺灣地區歷年空屋率均相當高，而至1993年底空屋數量持續增加達到歷年最高紀錄：約76萬户空屋，空屋率約為14%，此现象預期對未來房地產市場不景氣有嚴重深遠的影響。本文其次利用計量經濟模型分析影響臺灣空屋率的主要原因，藉此解釋臺灣各地區不同的空屋狀況。最後，針對過去空屋现況與實證结果，研擬提高空屋利用之策略。

關鍵字

空屋率 ； 自然空屋率 ； 空屋機率 ； 空屋期間 ； 空屋利用 ； 住宅政策

並列摘要

According to 1980 and 1990 Taiwan's housing census, the housing vacancy rate was above 13%. Comparing with the reasonable vacancy rate, 4~5% in the most western countries, the vacancy rate in Taiwan was very high obviously. Is high vacancy rate phenomenon always exist in Taiwan? What are the reasons of high vacancy rate? Does it imply the expectation of high capital gain of housing investment as well as the low holding costs and rents in Taiwan? Due to the lack of vacancy rate information, we can't give a good anwser to above questions. This paper used housing census data and under minimun use of electricity data of Taiwan Power Company to clarify the phenomenon of housing vacancy rate in Taiwan during every past year. We found that housing vacancy was always high. Up to the end of 1993, the stock of vacant house was about 760,000 units and the vacancy rate was about 14%. We then established econometric model to analyze the reasons of high vacancy rate. Finally, we suggest some housing strategies to solve the high vacancy issue to the government.

並列關鍵字

Vacancy Rate ； Natural Vacancy Rate ； Vacancy Incidence ； Vacancy Duration ； Housing Policy