台灣各都市內部遷移率與住宅市場關係之實證研究

The Interrelationship between Intra-Urban Mobility Rate and Local Housing Market Development in Taiwan

薛立敏(Li-Min Hsueh) ； 曾喜鵬(Hsi-Peng Tseng)

《住宅學報》 9卷2期 (2000/08) Pp. 79-97

https://doi.org/10.6375/JHS.200008.0079

摘要

本研究首先建立一觀念性模型，以解釋都市內部遷移與當地住宅市場發展的相互關係，並選取台北市、台北縣、台中市及高雄市四個都市為研究對象，以民國63年至民國85年的總體時間序列資料，分別利用多項延遲分配模型(polynomial distributed-lagged model; PDL)、及誤差修正模型(error correction model;ECM)為估計方法，探討都市內部遷移率與住宅供給量、房價所得比、及仲介業密度等三個住宅市場變數間的關係。
就整體結果而言，PDL模型因為已經假定了遷移率是被解釋變數，而使模型的解釋能力受到限制，房價負擔能力與仲介業密度的估計結果均不令人滿意；以誤差修正模型估計結果則發現遷移率與住宅供給之間呈現相互的影響，而遷移率對房價及仲介業密度的影響更甚於後者對前者的影響。總結來說，利用可以檢定變數間雙向因果關係及長短期效果的誤差修正模型是較理想的方法。此外，本研究發現台北市的住宅市場與其他三地有顯著的不同。

關鍵字

都市內部遷移 ； 住宅市場 ； 延遲分配模型 ； 誤差修正模型

並列摘要

Time-series data between 1974-1996 of four major cities in Taiwan were collected and polynomial distributed-lagged (PDL) model and error correction model (ECM) were applied to empirically test the relationship between intraurban mobility rate and variables related to housing market. The result shows that intraurban mobility rate and housing supply affect each other, while the impact of mobility rates on house prices and on the density of real estate agencies is greater than the impact of the latter on the former. And ECM is a more satisfactory estimating procedure for this study.

並列關鍵字

intra-urban mobility ； housing market ； polynomial distributed-lagged model(PDL) ； error correction model (ECM)

參考文獻

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Cadwallader, M.(1992).Migration and Residential Mobility: Macro and Micro Approaches.The University of Wisconsin.