Does Population Aging Affect Real Housing Prices? Evidence from Eight Asian Economies

人口老化是否影響房價？亞洲八國分析

盧秋玲(Chiuling Lu) ； 沈仰斌(Yang-Pin Shen) ； 施正倫(Cheng-Lun Shih)

《住宅學報》 27卷1期 (2018/06) Pp. 1-21

摘要

We examine the effect of an aging population on housing prices in eight Asian economies. Given that most Asian economies are younger than advanced economies, we expected their demography to have a comparatively small negative effect on real housing prices. Our findings, however, show that the negative effect is large. On average, total population and population aging will cause real housing price returns to decrease by approximately 134 basis points per annum until 2035, compared to 80 basis points in advanced economies until 2050, as estimated by Takats (2012). The results further show that in regions with greater economic freedom, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, the downward influence will be less than that in regions with less economic freedom.

關鍵字

housing prices ； population aging ； old dependency ratio ； Asian economies

並列摘要

我們檢視了八個亞洲經濟體中人口老化對房價的影響。鑑於大多數亞洲經濟體都比已開發國家經濟體年輕，我們預計他們的人口老化對實際房價的負面影響應該相對較小。然而，我們的研究結果顯示負面影響幅度卻很大。根據Takats(2012)的估算，已開發國家人口老化將導致實際房屋價格在2035年之前每年下降約80個基本點，但是平均而言，亞洲經濟體的下降幅度卻高達每年134個基本點。另外，我們結果進一步發現，在經濟自由度較大的地區，如香港、新加坡、台灣和南韓，其下跌幅度將遠低於樣本中的其他地區。

並列關鍵字

房價 ； 人口老化 ； 撫養比例 ； 亞洲經濟體

參考文獻

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