為因應年長者之經濟安全需求,以房養老(housing endowment)之相關商品成為台灣矚目的討論議題。本研究乃應用Ibbotson et al.(1984)所發表之資本市場新均衡理論(new equilibrium theory, NET)做為建立以房養老市場潛在需求因素之理論基礎,並利用模糊分析階層程序法(fuzzy analytic hierarchical process, FAHP)評估潛在需求因素之準則及國內四種不同方案之需求意願之排序。本文研究發現有其韌性,因無論是以三角模糊數或常態模糊數,其結果皆以「逆向抵押」之投資意願排序最高。
To manage the economic security needs of elderly people, the housing endowment is becoming a key issue in Taiwan. This study explores the determinants of the potential demand for investing in the housing endowment market on a basis of the new equilibrium theory proposed by Ibbotson et al. (1984). It evaluates and ranks the factors that influence the potential demand for housing endowments and four different programs using the fuzzy analytic hierarchical process. Our results show that it is robust in the sense that investment in reverse mortgages ranks as the first priority regardless of whether triangular fuzzy numbers or Gaussian fuzzy numbers are utilized.
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