民進黨總統初選評析

An Analysis of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Presidential Primary

陳朝建(Chao-Chien Chen)

《臺灣民主季刊》 4卷2期 (2007/06) Pp. 173-182

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200706.0173

摘要

本文旨在對2007年民進黨的總統初選活動進行評析，文中指出民進黨的總統初選分成兩個階段進行，第一個階段為1月至2月的黨內協調安排，第二階段則是協調不成之後所進行的「黨員投票」與「民調初選」（合稱「正式初選」），惟此次「民調初選」則決議停止辦理。本文發現，第一個階段的黨內協調安排難題在於：首先，應由何人來「喬」該黨總統候選人？畢竟陳水扁總統擔任總統初選協調人的正當性在國務機要費弊案後已經不足；其次，民進黨協調安排總統候選人的標準並不明確，加諸「四大天王」及其背後的次級團體也未必能夠接受黨內協調安排的結果，導致民進黨的總統初選必需進入第二階段，即協調不成之後再進行「正式初選」。單以黨員投票來說，「初選資格」、「口袋黨員」才是影響民進黨總統候選人的勝敗關鍵；同時，原先該黨預定採取的民調初選採「排藍民調」，經本文分析，發現有違黨內民主與黨員平等的憲法原則。另外，2007年民進黨總統初選的幾場辯論會都沒有令人感動的執政願景，將會導致民進黨續航2008年的力道減弱；尤其是，停辦民調初選後的黨內整合難題，像是謝、蘇之間如何合作或搭檔，還有陳水扁總統願不願意接受提前跛鴨的事實，將是影響謝長廷能否帶領民進黨在2008年的重要關鍵。

關鍵字

民進黨 ； 總統初選 ； 黨內民主

並列摘要

In this article, the author tries to analyze the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential primary held in 2007. The presidential primary included two stages: the first stage was deciding how to coordinate, an unofficial intra-party democratic process; the second stage was to run an official intra-party democratic process via party-member voting and public polling (but public polling for the presidential primary was suspended in 2007 by the DPP). But the difficulties in the first stage were: who had the legitimacy to coordinate, especially as President Chen Shui-bian was entangled in a state affairs fund fraud case; and there were no criteria to coordinate the DPP's presidential candidates, even though the outcome of coordination could not be accepted by all primary candidates and political factions of the DPP. This was why the second stage-an official intra-party democratic process-is needed. In the stage of voting by party-members, the author finds that the qualifications of presidential primary candidates and nominal party members were the decisive factors between victory and defeat for presidential primary elections in the DPP. In addition, the so-called pan-blue exclusionary measures in the DPP's presidential primary public opinion polls could sabotage the intra-party democracy of the DPP. In this article, the author also finds that the presidential primary candidates had no political visions that the people could identify with. And after the public polling of presidential primaries was suspended, the integration of the DPP, especially cooperation between Frank Hsieh (Hsieh Chang-ting) and Su Tseng-chang, would be the most important factor for the DPP to win the 2008 presidential election in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Democratic Progressive Party DPP ； presidential primary ； intra-party democracy