議題、候選人評價、黨派意識－2006年台北市長選舉投票行爲研究

Issues, Candidate Evaluations, and Partisanship: Competing Characterizations of the 2006 Taipei Mayoral Election

林瓊珠(Chiung-Chu Lin)

《臺灣民主季刊》 5卷2期 (2008/06) Pp. 59-87

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200806.0059

摘要

本文主要檢視影響2006年台北市長選舉選民投票抉擇的因素。本文討論的主要解釋變項之重要性在諸多投票行爲研究中已廣爲證實與接受。這些解釋變項包括選民預存之政治傾向、對現任執政者表現之回顧性評估、候選人評價和候選人議題立場評估。在選民眼中，郝龍斌比謝長廷獲得較佳的評價和肯定，同時，台北市的泛藍陣營支持者也遠多於泛綠支持者，再加上六成二以上的選民肯定馬英九過去的執政表現，從種種因素來看，郝龍斌確實比謝長廷更具有勝選的機會與優勢。我們進一步從投票模型結果可以得知，長期因素（泛藍支持）是解釋郝龍斌得票的主要原因，然而，對謝長廷來說，短期因素例如候選人評價和議題考量則是解釋他得票的主要因素。換句話說，投票給郝龍斌者主要是一種情感上的表現，一種偏向泛藍陣營的心理認同；投票給謝長廷的選民主要是一種評估衡量後的決定，這個決定主要是來自對候選人的評價和議題想法之綜合評估。

關鍵字

泛藍／泛綠偏向 ； 候選人評價 ； 議題取向 ； 投票行爲

並列摘要

This paper reviews a range of factors which specify a model for Hau and Hsieh votes in the 2006 Taipei Mayoral election. These factors, which have been proposed in studying voting behavior, include voters' predispositions, retrospective evaluations of government performance, evaluations of the candidates, and contemporary issue-oriented considerations. By looking at the distributions of the explanatory variables, the results suggest that Hau Lung-bin was evaluated and credited more highly than Frank Hsieh. It further assessed the effect of all factors on the vote in a multivariate model. The results suggest that long-term partisan attachments were behind Hau Lung-bin's victory, while short-term factors were in favor of Frank Hsieh. In other words, it was 'pan-blue' partisanships which accounted most for Hau's success. It was issue-oriented considerations and candidate evaluations that played relatively important roles in deciding Frank Hsieh's votes.

並列關鍵字

pan-blue preference/pan-green preference ； candidate evaluations ； issues ； voting behavior

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