父母政黨偏好組合對大學生政黨偏好之影響－定群追蹤之研究

The Influence of Parents' Political Party Preferences on College Students: A Panel Study

劉嘉薇(Jia-Wei Liu) ； 黃紀(Chi Huang)

《臺灣民主季刊》 9卷3期 (2012/09) Pp. 37-84

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.201209.0037

摘要

本研究運用調查研究資料分析大學生政黨偏好的形成，透過定群追蹤研究（panel study），本研究持續觀察與訪談大學生在進入大學後四年間政黨偏好的持續與變化。大學生四年間政黨偏好皆穩定者佔52.0％，其餘48％皆為變化者，政治社會化為解釋政黨偏好變化的原因之一，其中家庭父母政黨偏好更是主要影響子女政黨偏好變化的原因。父母政黨偏好相同時，對子女政黨偏好的影響最大。然而，即使父藍母藍，子女仍有可能較支持泛綠，但其係數較父藍母藍對子女支持泛藍影響小。另一方面，即使父綠母綠，子女仍有可能較支持泛藍，但其可能性較父綠母綠對子女支持泛綠影響小。再者，關於父母有一方具有藍或綠的政黨偏好，另一方為中立的情況下，父母政黨偏好組合對子女的影響又是如何。當父藍母中或父中母藍時，子女多數支持泛藍。相對來說，當父藍母中或父中母藍時，子女仍有可能較支持泛綠，但其可能性低於相同自變數對子女支持泛藍的影響，且這項差異表現在同一個體在不同時間點的差異。然而，當父綠母中或父中母綠時，子女仍有可能較支持泛藍，但其係數影響低於相同自變數對泛綠的影響，且這項差異表現在同一個體在不同時間點的差異。進一步而言，當父母政黨偏好相異時，對子女政黨偏好影響何者為大。父綠母藍對子女泛藍的影響大於父藍母綠的影響。再者，父藍母綠對子女泛綠的影響大於父綠母藍的影響，以上差異皆來自於不同個體之間的差異，而非不同時間點之間的差異，整體而言，母親政黨偏好對子女的影響大於父親。

關鍵字

政治社會化 ； 政黨偏好 ； 家庭 ； 父母 ； 學校 ； 傳播媒介

並列摘要

This article studies the continuity and change of college student's party preferences during their college career by analyzing a five-wave panel survey dataset. In our sample, 52% of students remain stable in party preferences while the rest 48% change during the four-year period. Political socialization no doubt is the major force behind this pattern of stability and change. Among all the agents of socialization, however, parents play significant roles. By dividing party preferences into pan-blue, pan-green and neutral, we find that whenever both parents share the same party preference their children tend to prefer that particular party camp. That said, children may still support pan-green parties even if both of their parents are pan-blue supporters, although such possibility is much lower. Likewise, children may still support pan-blue parties even if both of their parents are pan-green supporters, although again such possibility is much lower. It is interesting to see what happens to children if one of their patents does not identify with a particular camp, that is, remains neutral. We find that no matter whether father or mother has a clear party preference and the other remains neutral, their children tend to prefer that particular party camp also. Although there are cases deviate from this general pattern, for example, a father-blue-mother-neutral combination with a green-identifying child, they tend to be less likely to occur than the general pattern where a clear party preference dominates. It is even more interesting to know what if both parents have clear but opposite party stands. We find that a father-green-mother-blue combination is more likely to have a blue-preferring child, while a father-blue -mother-green combination is more likely to have a green-preferring child. It is worth noting that these patterns exist between subjects instead of within subject over time. In other words, mothers tend to have stronger influence on children's party preference when parents' party identification conflicts.

並列關鍵字

political socialization ； party preference ； parents ； family ； college ； mass media

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